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Forums - Sales Discussion - At what point is it game over for the PS3?

Smashed on 11 January 2009
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 



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jesus kung fu magic on 11 January 2009
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

*SUPER MEGA SURPRISED FACE*

Not even sony believes this anymore.

The wii will outsell both the ps1 and ps2 even you cant deny that.

And as of right now the 360 will stay in second.

 



N64 is the ONLY console of the fifth generation!!!

Smashed on 11 January 2009
jesus kung fu magic said:
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

 

*SUPER MEGA SURPRISED FACE*

Not even sony believes this anymore.

 

Why's that?



jesus kung fu magic on 11 January 2009
Smashed said:
jesus kung fu magic said:
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

 

*SUPER MEGA SURPRISED FACE*

Not even sony believes this anymore.

 

Why's that?

 

Get  wii and ps2 comparison chart for their first 3 years and you will see why.



N64 is the ONLY console of the fifth generation!!!

Oyvoyvoyv on 11 January 2009
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

It doubled its sales? How? You're talking about a year over year increase. That wasn't solely inflicted by the price cut.

Let's so by quarter.

Q1

07: 1444K

08: 1942K (+ 35%)

 

Q2:

07: 1096K

08:  1898K (+73%)

 

Q3:

07: 1733K (Halo 3 quarter)

08:  2045K (+ 19%)

 

Q4:

07: 4235K

08: 6045K (42% increase).

 

But as Halo 3 still boosted in that period, 50% yoy increase would be fair to say.

 

For a comparison, + 33% had been usual for the rest of the year.

 

This means, the price cut added somewhere around 1/3 to 1/4 extra sales to the X360. Far away from doubling its sales.

Even if the Ps3 would manage to double its sales, that would only be for a few weeks.

 

 

 



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Fumanchu on 11 January 2009
misterd said:
phknrocket1k said:

1.) Can the PS3 still overtake the X360?

If you answer 'Yes' move on to 1b, if 'No' move onto 2.

1b.) If so... how large does the X360's lead have to be over the PS3?

 

2.) If it already is game over for the PS3, at what point (X360 lead of 5mn, 5.5mn, 6mn, 7mn) was it over?

 

1. Yes, but unlikely to do so before the NeXBox comes out.

1b. Not sure what you mean. I expect they 360 to continue pulling away until the PS3 cuts price, likely this year sometime. At most the lead will extend by a few hundred thousand more, but I simply don't see the 360 getting 10m over or more.

2. Define "game over". If you mean the console simply can't catch the 360? I'd say that happened at the end of last year. The PS3 was catching up, and could have caught up in 2010 at the rate it was going. But by the end of the year it lost all the ground it had made up and then some. Now the best they can hope for is 2011 or 2012, when I don't expect the 360 to still be on the market.

 

I don't know why so many people share this belief.  Sony saw fit to keep the PS2 around (it still is) and greatly offsets the losses on the PS3, so why would MS just 'abandon ship' on the 360?

If you've got a big install base with the capacity to sell millions of copies of games garnering mass royalties, making profit on the hardware + accessories and generating income through LIVE subcriptions and other marketplace downloads, there's no reason to stop support of a product potentially making billions - I really can't see where people are coming from with that assumption. 



richardhutnik on 11 January 2009
darendt said:
The Ps3 was just outselling the 360 for months. It wasn't until the price drop that the 360 pulled ahead again. In fact had it not been for the price drop it was looking like the PS3 was going to take the "Others" lead. Leaving the US as the 360s only advantage. Now that the price drop has been around awhile, the numbers are getting close again. All Sony has to do is drop the price a little and it will again make up lost ground.

Its not over until ll three companies move on and Sony stops selling the PS3. For all we know, Sony is sitting back with a high price point because they don't plan on making another console until 2013. If they did this, they would be the least expensive and have the most features.

Why is it presume that a price cut to an OLD price of where the 360 used to be will result in the PS3 selling as much as the 360 is now?  Isn't it possible that a given PRICE POINT (not price differential between two systems) a system's sales begin to hit a new level.  Why would it be different?


As for "game over" for the PS3 question, how about when the system goes out of production?  Until then, it will still have games made for it, and likely some awesome exclusives to.  So long as it is around, in production and has new games, it is worth looking into.  

 



saxophonehero on 11 January 2009

1 YES 2 when the PS4 is sold for about 2 years in each of tye main regions



Killergran on 11 January 2009
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

First, Oyvoyvoyv just proved you wrong with that statement. Secondly, just because it happened to the 360 does not by default mean it will happen to the PS3. I'm not saying it won't, mind you, I'm saying that you cannot be sure. And the reason you cannot be sure is that there is no mathematical model for what happens when you cut price. There is no math. Any math you invent will be bullshit. Bullshit as in 'no real resemblance to reality, and if such resemblance can be found it is purely coincidental.'

See, there is no math to a pricecut. There are the buyers, the people. And you don't know them.

 



This is invisible text!

Killergran on 11 January 2009
Oyvoyvoyv said:
Smashed said:
Killergran said:
Smashed said:

Accually, it doesn't really take a brain that the PS3 is currently in 3rd place because of the price. And the sales are still doing good for the price.

So do the math.

 

What math? Are you referring to the 'If you drop the price by half it will sell twice as much' math? Because that is utter bullshit. There is no certainty about how pricelevels effect sales. A pricedrop could have absolutely no effect, or it could have an insane effect. It doesn't depend on math, it depends on the buyers. And you don't know until you've tried.

In most cases, a pricedrop WILL have a positive effect on sales. At the very least, it's extremely seldom a pricedrop has a NEGATIVE effect on sales. But you cannot say how much or for how long.

And it even if you think it "doesn't really take a brain that the PS3" is selling bad because of the price, that does not negate the theory that the Xbox would still sell better if the PS3 was 1500SEK (muahaha! Currency wars!).  Common sense might dictate it would, but common sense simply does not apply in all cases.

Simply put, there is no math. There is people. And you don't know them.

 

 

How is it utter bullshit? The 360 sold double as much because it dropped the price, why can't the PS3? And to answer his question, yes it's possible for the PS3 to pass the 360 after the price drops. I think Sony has a large enough fanbase to outsell the 360. PS1, PS2, still holding the crowns.

 

It doubled its sales? How? You're talking about a year over year increase. That wasn't solely inflicted by the price cut.

Let's so by quarter.

Q1

07: 1444K

08: 1942K (+ 35%)

 

Q2:

07: 1096K

08:  1898K (+73%)

 

Q3:

07: 1733K (Halo 3 quarter)

08:  2045K (+ 19%)

 

Q4:

07: 4235K

08: 6045K (42% increase).

 

But as Halo 3 still boosted in that period, 50% yoy increase would be fair to say.

 

For a comparison, + 33% had been usual for the rest of the year.

 

This means, the price cut added somewhere around 1/3 to 1/4 extra sales to the X360. Far away from doubling its sales.

Even if the Ps3 would manage to double its sales, that would only be for a few weeks.

 

 

 

Nice analysis, Oyvoyvoyv. Is there any way to find out how much of that came from PS3 sales by doing a similar comparison? I'm thinking that a lot of the PS3 downturn came from people choosing the 360 instead of the PS3. Of course, this is just a theory, and not proven in any way, but it this would be a great opportunity to investigate the matter.

 



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