Absolutely.

It will go below 20%, stay there for a few weeks, then climb back up after a price cut. Should end this gen on over 20% marketshare. The Wii will end with well over 60%, though.

actually looking further into it the minimum should be 3.8 billion. Sony Lost 455 million in the last quarter of 2006 canceling out most profits by the ps2 that's why it ended up with only 70 million profit in 2006. That would put it at 3.85 billion minimum, again PS2 and PSP not taken into consideration.

^^I'm cheering you on from the sidelines.

Wrong, check the math:  30 is 15% of 200 (like 15 is 15% of 100, just double it).  So if PS3 is at 30m, the other two combined would be at 170m; 30+170=200. 

It depends on what you mean by "approaching" 15%.  17% is considerably "easier":  40m, 195m.  Say, PS3 40m, 360 50m, Wii 105m.  I would consider that a very pessimistic prediction for the PS3 (compared to the 360) but it's not crazy.

[edit:  Actually, now that I think about it, a very optimistic Wii prediction could put the PS3 at 15%:  PS3 31m, 360 39m, Wii 100m.  The first two are TheSource's predictions for EOY 2009, the Wii is 20m higher.  So if the Wii explodes again it could very well happen; otherwise, never.]

PS3 will not get close to 15% .. It will go below 20% but as it stands these last few weeks PS3 WW percentage each week has been above 15%.

Um they are not almost even in their net value.  Sure they may almost be even or not making a loss this year or next year.  But they have lost like 3 billion dollars on their current investment the PS3.  They have to start making a shit ton of money each year. 

Not going more in the whole is always nice, but they need to start climbing out.    And loosing marketshare ain't gonna help and a price cut will do the opposite.  They need to hope that consumers start spending money again and see the value of a PS3 over competitors

I would be surprised if the difference was less than 100k per week. At this point is the reverse of what you say, its about which console is cheaper not which console has the big new releases (Unless its the Wii). Both Others and Americas are significantly in the Xbox 360s favour at this point. Take Killzone 2 as an example? What an OMFG game right? Well that genre is whored out, the Xbox 360 hit it twice already with big name exclusives. TIME AND AGAIN its been shown that pretty much all of these big name games on the HD consoles do squat for sales barring a few exceptions.

At 75k per week the gap increases by 1M per quarter.

150k = 2M per quarter, etc.

Definitely yes....

that doesn't mean it doesn't have a chance of beating the 360 (it's extreemly slim though), just that the Wii will go thowards the 60%....

You're wrong, you're wrong, you are wrong.

The PS3 lost more money than the PS2 ever made.  Including its current sales.  Literally, Sony lost everything made on the PS2.

So here you are arguing that:

(1) Not only are PS3 losses much lower than we can easily deduce on paper

but also that

(2) The PS3 will be much more profitable in the next couple of years than the PS2 ever was.

How on earth can you argue those points?  We know point (1) with at least a 99% certainty.

The chance of Sony making a profit on the PS3 overall is nearly nil.  They're still losing almost $100 per unit sold by iSuppli estimates when everything is factored in (it costs ~448 to make a PS3, then you have to ship it across the world, store it, and sell it, all of which cost money).

I agree.  The PS3 will probably have a very hard first half of the year, despite a few big titles.  It may even have a hard second half.  But it will not reach 15%, not anytime soon.  I would be only mildly surprised if it ended CY2009 at 20% or below and expect it to be a bit above 20% at the end of CY2009.