Will Ps3 Marketshare Fall Below 21%.

[Final-Fan]

ksv said:

Final-Fan said:

ksv said:
Of course it will dip under 20%. I wouldn't even be surprised if it approaches 15%, but chances are it will turn around a bit for Sony before that happens.

Extremely high and low percentages are hard to do.  To reach 15%, if the PS3 were at 20 million, the others would have to be at 113 million total ... 30m, 170m (Think you meant 100m there).  Right now it's at 19.31 and 72.81.

Yes, reaching 15% is unlikely, approaching 15% - quite possible. For this to happen it requires the current trends to continue, but like I said in my post, there's a good chance the tides will turn a little in the future.

Wrong, check the math:  30 is 15% of 200 (like 15 is 15% of 100, just double it).  So if PS3 is at 30m, the other two combined would be at 170m; 30+170=200. 

It depends on what you mean by "approaching" 15%.  17% is considerably "easier":  40m, 195m.  Say, PS3 40m, 360 50m, Wii 105m.  I would consider that a very pessimistic prediction for the PS3 (compared to the 360) but it's not crazy.

[edit:  Actually, now that I think about it, a very optimistic Wii prediction could put the PS3 at 15%:  PS3 31m, 360 39m, Wii 100m.  The first two are TheSource's predictions for EOY 2009, the Wii is 20m higher.  So if the Wii explodes again it could very well happen; otherwise, never.]