I expect the PS3s Q1 total to be lower than the previous years Q1 total. If the PS3 rose last year on the back of a price cut, then I expect it to fall on the back of no price cut. The PS3 will probably track closer to the Xbox 360 Q1 result of last year if you consider that the Xbox 360s declining sales were hidden by the Halo 3 release over the holiday season which made the gap between the Xbox 360 and PS3s desirability/price ratio less obvious.

I expect the Xbox 360 to exceed the early Q1 result of the PS3 last year so the gap between the PS3 and Xbox 360 now will be greater than when the PS3 started eroding the 360s lead early last year.

I think we are at the lowest now. 8 mln.

I do believe the gap will grow 3 mln +/- 500k by the end of 09. So 10.5-11 mln by year end.

I do not think a PS3 price cut will be unanswered by MS. They see what's going on and a $50 cut on the 360 across the board absolutely will trump even an unlikely $100 cut on the PS3. For a price cut to make a maximum impact, it would have to happen like tomorrow.

It is rediculous to think KZ2 will be a huge system seller. MGS4, a very well known and established franchise made minimal impact on system sales. What makes anyone think a game with a weak first iteration is going to sell systems. The game will sell well to people like me who have been waiting a long time in between must own titles for the PS3.

There are some great games aside from KZ2 this year, but anything save GT5 or FF13 will not move a lot of hardware and those look to be 2010 releases for the time being.

cough *call of duty* cough

Just because the previous game got a lot of critiques does not necessarily mean the second will be held to the same standard. Its not like Killzone didn't sell well at all. The game sold about 3.5 million. I believe that is more then God of War 2 did. The game was a huge success besides it's reviews. When I actually got a chance to play it  not too long ago for the first time I realized something...l

THE CONTROLS ARE IDENTICAL TO CALL OF DUTY4's!!! Yet they complained about this games gameplay, yea that wasn't biased. A game way before its time it was. Killzone obviously had really high ambitions that the PS2 simply could not handle. They were trying to squeeze XBOX graphics out of it and it just wasn't happening, hence the framerate issues. I have seen games with worse problems though.

If Killzone 2 can trully live up to the hype from it's graphics to it's gameplay. It could pull a COD4 that is exclusive for the PS3, bringing in more sales then a game such as MGS4, who as great as it is is still very niche.

Minimum in 2009 would match the smallest point in the past.

Maximum could approach 9-10 million this year.

Hard to say on this, because one can't predict what titles will be game changers (if any), and what Sony will be doing on price. If Sony is focused on not losing money, rather than gaining marketshare, look for the gap to widen.

      I think they will both be out in 2009.  I especially think that FFXIII will be out in Japan at the very least because there has never been a gap of 4 years between any of the modern FF's, and Square needs to show that they still have it especially after the big underperformances by The Last Remnant and Infinite Undiscovery on the 360.

In doing these forecasts, you would have to do a best case scenario for Microsoft and Sony, to be able to get the range. To not do this, is to show bias towards one console or another one, making oneself Crazzy.

That wouldn't work for this thread. The point of predictions is for people to say what they think will happen.

Sony
Best case scnerio
Overcome xbox lead by atleast 1mil by end of dec. worldwide
worse case scenerio
Xbox pull a lead by10 mil by end of dec. worldwide

max gap: 11.5mil

min gap: 5 mil

It can swing quite wildly either way this year. Personally I think console performance will be nearly identical to 2008, with sales trends reversed (360 lead most of year ps3 strong holiday gains)

Quite a few people misunderstood the task here. The thread is not about playing around with different scenarios, but to predict exact numbers.

I predict max gap will reach 9 million.
Min gap will go down to 7 million.