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Forums - Sony - Will the PS3 EVER reach 40 million?

chaospluto on 04 January 2009

This thread should be locked imho.

It's becoming very repetitive.



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There is definitely more to list that I want, but that's my main focus there.

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Final-Fan on 04 January 2009

Well, I think my dialogue with abcdario has reached an endpoint, if that makes you feel better. But I don't think any thread has gotten locked just because people are repeating themselves.



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Kantor on 04 January 2009
Domicinator said:
BTFeather55 said:
jkimball said:
Sephiroth357 said:

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 Make it a poll. I vote 'no way in hell'.  Lucky to hit 30M.

2009  5M

2010 4M

2011 2M

2012 Thud.

 

That's IF they don't pull the plug this spring which is still quite likely....

 

      I don't know how it is going to be selling in such low numbers with such huge exclusives as God of War III, Hideo Kojima's Policenauts 2, Dare I say it Shenmue 3, Metal Gear 5, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII exclusive to Japan and the blu-ray version being by far the best one in the rest of the world, FF Versus XIII, and still possibly FFVII Blu-Ray and Kingdom Hearts III, a number of new games from Naughty Dog including new Jak and Daxter:  The Lost Territory and Uncharted 2 and 3 , Insomniac with Resistance 3 and probably two more Ratchet games, and Sucker Punch InFamous I-III and new Sly Cooper, Heavy Rain being the rebirth of cinematic gaming, and Gran Turismo 5 all on the way.

Listing upcoming releases as a reason why it will sell lots of consoles is not a good argument.  Last year it was, "Yeah, but MGS4, Resistance 2, LBP, etc. etc. are all coming out in 2008!!  How could it not catch up this year?!"

And it didn't.  Those titles didn't push consoles.  So now the Sony defense force is just pushing the "catch up" date ahead another year and listing more upcoming titles.  Just like last year and the year before.

I also love the arguments that the PS3 is actually outselling the Xbox 360 right now.  World wide, the 360 is destroying the PS3 every month lately.  The VGChartz sales gap between the two is widening rapidly again.  Somebody even mentioned that the PS3 was going to make "another comeback" in 2009.  When was the first comeback again?  The PS3 has been solidly in third place for the entire generation with no really strong trend showing that this will ever NOT be the case.  Not even massive title launches have been able to budge it. 

Anyone happen to see that Nielsen story the other day?  The PS2, original Xbox, and Xbox 360 are all being played more than the PS3.  The Xbox 360 is actually being played more than the Wii.  Apparently Nielsen tracks console use as well as TV viewing.  My verdict--the PS3 has been largely viewed as a BluRay player this generation and not so much a gaming machine.

 

Okay, let's say next year's exclusives AND a price cut have absolutely no effect. So, the PS3 sells 10 million consoles in 2009, right? Why on earth would it go DOWN when every year, sales have gone up?

If Sony has any kind of survival instinct, they will cut the PS3's price in 2009. Maybe in April. Maybe in November. But they know that if they don't, the PS3 is dead, and with it, any credibility left in the PS brand. So, they will cut the price.

Why do you think that only the 360 profits from price cuts? Didn't the PS3 get a huge boost and beat the 360 for some 9 months after receiving a price cut that put it at $400? So, logically, a price cut to $300 would have a larger effect, due to it coming closer to mass market price, right?

MGS4 had a pretty decent effect. It tripled the 360's sales that week, it beat the Wii's sales that week. It did very well for itself.

People overestimated LBP, and with good reason. It is a great game, but it is not the sort of game that would succeed on the PS3. At all.

Anybody who thought R2 would sell consoles was extremely deluded. If you are going to buy a PS3 for R2, you'd have bought it for Resistance: Fall of Man. Did Gears 2 sell consoles? No it didn't.

Killzone 2 has a little sales potential, although not much. God of War III has a little more than that, and Gran Turismo 5 has a lot more than that. It has the system selling potential of Halo. In sales potential, GT5>MGS4>GoW3>KZ2>LBP>R2.

And 2008 didn't have a price cut, 2009 will.

So, logically, the PS3 should sell more this year than last year, right?

Sheesh.



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gundamx on 04 January 2009

it will come by end of 09



Lafiel on 04 January 2009

some Microsoft guys stated several times, that "70% of a consoles lifetime sales happen when it's priced below 200$/€" - seeing that the PS3 sold 19.3 million at a 400$ price tag I think we can be sure it will get to the 40 million mark *yawn*



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Staude on 04 January 2009
kars said:
BTFeather55 said:

      I don't know how it is going to be selling in such low numbers with such huge exclusives as God of War III, ... and Gran Turismo 5 all on the way.

Difficult to say, but look at Resistance 2, Motorstorm 2 and even LBP. All good titles but you can't say that they really moved consoles. Instead the PS-3 sold more or less on a steady rate, bu6t while the Wii and the Xbox360 after the price cut, sell consoles to casual gamers, the PS-3 stays trageted at film enthusiasts and hardcore gamers. Better and cheaper BluRay players make the PS-3 less attractive but even with a price cut the PS-3 might have trouble to reach the casual gamers, till it can reach at least the 250$ mark.

Considering these elements and the weak economy, which will have an even stronger impact in the next year, I wouldn't be surprised if the PS-3 might sell less than 7 million consoles in the next year.

Everything after that would be pure guess work.

 

unlike the games you mentioned god of war and gran turismo are last gen games taking the (full) jump. Look at metal gear solid 4. Same will happen.. only with GT it'll be on a bigger scale.

 



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Kantor on 04 January 2009
abcdario said:
Kantor said:
This is just ridiculous. People actually believe it isn't going to reach 40 million.

Okay, let me explain this in simple terms:

2009: 7 million to make 26.5 million
2010: 6 million to make 32.5 million
2011: 5 million to make 37.5 million
2012: 4 million to make 41.5 million.

Now tell me, why is the 360 outselling the PS3? Is it because of games? A little. Live? A little. Price? A LOT. The PS3 is a $400 console in a recession. It will not always be a $400 in a recession. The recession will not last forever, the $400 price tag will not last forever. God, it's like early 2007 all over again!

 

Do you know how many does a console sells when they are in the last position ?

Do you think it will be there still in 2012 ? May be it will be alive in 2011, but there is no way it will still be there in the market by 2012, as you can see, only the leader can keep itself with good games for 6 years, the next one can only last for 5 years and the last one mostly dies before. It is not like i m talking without fundaments, just look at the pictures before, the PSone era and the PStwo era.

In case u dont consider the Wii in the same market as the X360/PS3, then the leading would go to X360, leaving the PS3 fighting a strong Wii in japan, a strong X360 in USA and a mixed bag in Europe.

It doesn't matter how much a console sells when it is in last position. The PS3 is going to outsell the GameCube, right? Very soon. The PS3 is selling far better than the GameCube, and so should continue to sell better, right?

What do "positions" matter? The majority of the mainstream doesn't care that the Wii is in first, the 360 is in second or the PS3 is in third. Which console is doing better, a first place console with 50 million sales or a last place console with 60 million sales? Places are superficial, they are made up by the hardcore. How many people do you think would have bought the PS3, but bought a Wii instead? Not very many, to be sure.

Then, we get to the games. To be frank, the Wii's third party support, as of 4th January 2009, is not very good. It misses out on a lot of multiplats and does not get many exclusives. Right?

Why would there be a sudden switch to Wii development? Even if the Wii has 200 million consoles at the end of this gen (I think it will be much lower), the HD consoles together will have well over 100 million. So, by making a Wii-exclusive game, they are missing out on a potential userbase of 100 million. Second place in the 5th gen had 33 million sales. Second place in the 6th gen had 25 million sales. Second place in the seventh gen will have a good 60 million sales.

Which brings us to the 360. If the PS3 is not in the same market as the Wii, it's home free in Japan. The PS3 can never really hope to beat the 360 in America. Others is where I think the PS3 will claim its HD victory. When you tear it down to the bare facts, a $200/300 console is outselling a $400 console in a near-recession. This is normal, right?

Now, when that $400 console becomes $300, what happens? Hint: The $400 PS3 was outselling the $300 (Arcade) X360.

It's foolish to assume the PS3 is dead because it's not selling well right now. The HD consoles will finish this gen within 8 million sales of each other.



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papflesje on 04 January 2009

@ topic: promotion month has started over here, and after being in the store for 5 minutes (the first five after opening), I can say that the Belgians are doing their part to get to the 40 million O_O Saw 10 PS3's head out the door in minutes, with several other people still wandering around in the store carrying a PS3, still looking for additional stuff to buy. (no wii or xbox sold / held at that time).

Just an anecdote ^^



Max King of the Wild on 04 January 2009

abcd - why wont Japan help? the GC never got ff12, ff10, or ff10 2

Ps3 will get ff13 and ffv13

you also talk about "GC never got a foothold just like ps3 so ps3 will die"

looks like ps3 is doing fine

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=156



gundamx on 04 January 2009

@Max King of the Wild. i love your work:D people needa chill ps3 is only getn better every wk:)