Will the PS3 EVER reach 40 million?

[Kantor]

abcdario said:

Kantor said:
This is just ridiculous. People actually believe it isn't going to reach 40 million.

Okay, let me explain this in simple terms:

2009: 7 million to make 26.5 million
2010: 6 million to make 32.5 million
2011: 5 million to make 37.5 million
2012: 4 million to make 41.5 million.

Now tell me, why is the 360 outselling the PS3? Is it because of games? A little. Live? A little. Price? A LOT. The PS3 is a $400 console in a recession. It will not always be a $400 in a recession. The recession will not last forever, the $400 price tag will not last forever. God, it's like early 2007 all over again!

 

Do you know how many does a console sells when they are in the last position ?

Do you think it will be there still in 2012 ? May be it will be alive in 2011, but there is no way it will still be there in the market by 2012, as you can see, only the leader can keep itself with good games for 6 years, the next one can only last for 5 years and the last one mostly dies before. It is not like i m talking without fundaments, just look at the pictures before, the PSone era and the PStwo era.

In case u dont consider the Wii in the same market as the X360/PS3, then the leading would go to X360, leaving the PS3 fighting a strong Wii in japan, a strong X360 in USA and a mixed bag in Europe.

It doesn't matter how much a console sells when it is in last position. The PS3 is going to outsell the GameCube, right? Very soon. The PS3 is selling far better than the GameCube, and so should continue to sell better, right?

What do "positions" matter? The majority of the mainstream doesn't care that the Wii is in first, the 360 is in second or the PS3 is in third. Which console is doing better, a first place console with 50 million sales or a last place console with 60 million sales? Places are superficial, they are made up by the hardcore. How many people do you think would have bought the PS3, but bought a Wii instead? Not very many, to be sure.

Then, we get to the games. To be frank, the Wii's third party support, as of 4th January 2009, is not very good. It misses out on a lot of multiplats and does not get many exclusives. Right?

Why would there be a sudden switch to Wii development? Even if the Wii has 200 million consoles at the end of this gen (I think it will be much lower), the HD consoles together will have well over 100 million. So, by making a Wii-exclusive game, they are missing out on a potential userbase of 100 million. Second place in the 5th gen had 33 million sales. Second place in the 6th gen had 25 million sales. Second place in the seventh gen will have a good 60 million sales.

Which brings us to the 360. If the PS3 is not in the same market as the Wii, it's home free in Japan. The PS3 can never really hope to beat the 360 in America. Others is where I think the PS3 will claim its HD victory. When you tear it down to the bare facts, a $200/300 console is outselling a $400 console in a near-recession. This is normal, right?

Now, when that $400 console becomes $300, what happens? Hint: The $400 PS3 was outselling the $300 (Arcade) X360.

It's foolish to assume the PS3 is dead because it's not selling well right now. The HD consoles will finish this gen within 8 million sales of each other.