Will the PS3 EVER reach 40 million?

[Kantor]

Domicinator said:

BTFeather55 said:

jkimball said:

Sephiroth357 said:

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 Make it a poll. I vote 'no way in hell'.  Lucky to hit 30M.

2009  5M

2010 4M

2011 2M

2012 Thud.

 

That's IF they don't pull the plug this spring which is still quite likely....

 

      I don't know how it is going to be selling in such low numbers with such huge exclusives as God of War III, Hideo Kojima's Policenauts 2, Dare I say it Shenmue 3, Metal Gear 5, Trico, Final Fantasy XIII exclusive to Japan and the blu-ray version being by far the best one in the rest of the world, FF Versus XIII, and still possibly FFVII Blu-Ray and Kingdom Hearts III, a number of new games from Naughty Dog including new Jak and Daxter:  The Lost Territory and Uncharted 2 and 3 , Insomniac with Resistance 3 and probably two more Ratchet games, and Sucker Punch InFamous I-III and new Sly Cooper, Heavy Rain being the rebirth of cinematic gaming, and Gran Turismo 5 all on the way.

Listing upcoming releases as a reason why it will sell lots of consoles is not a good argument.  Last year it was, "Yeah, but MGS4, Resistance 2, LBP, etc. etc. are all coming out in 2008!!  How could it not catch up this year?!"

And it didn't.  Those titles didn't push consoles.  So now the Sony defense force is just pushing the "catch up" date ahead another year and listing more upcoming titles.  Just like last year and the year before.

I also love the arguments that the PS3 is actually outselling the Xbox 360 right now.  World wide, the 360 is destroying the PS3 every month lately.  The VGChartz sales gap between the two is widening rapidly again.  Somebody even mentioned that the PS3 was going to make "another comeback" in 2009.  When was the first comeback again?  The PS3 has been solidly in third place for the entire generation with no really strong trend showing that this will ever NOT be the case.  Not even massive title launches have been able to budge it. 

Anyone happen to see that Nielsen story the other day?  The PS2, original Xbox, and Xbox 360 are all being played more than the PS3.  The Xbox 360 is actually being played more than the Wii.  Apparently Nielsen tracks console use as well as TV viewing.  My verdict--the PS3 has been largely viewed as a BluRay player this generation and not so much a gaming machine.

 

Okay, let's say next year's exclusives AND a price cut have absolutely no effect. So, the PS3 sells 10 million consoles in 2009, right? Why on earth would it go DOWN when every year, sales have gone up?

If Sony has any kind of survival instinct, they will cut the PS3's price in 2009. Maybe in April. Maybe in November. But they know that if they don't, the PS3 is dead, and with it, any credibility left in the PS brand. So, they will cut the price.

Why do you think that only the 360 profits from price cuts? Didn't the PS3 get a huge boost and beat the 360 for some 9 months after receiving a price cut that put it at $400? So, logically, a price cut to $300 would have a larger effect, due to it coming closer to mass market price, right?

MGS4 had a pretty decent effect. It tripled the 360's sales that week, it beat the Wii's sales that week. It did very well for itself.

People overestimated LBP, and with good reason. It is a great game, but it is not the sort of game that would succeed on the PS3. At all.

Anybody who thought R2 would sell consoles was extremely deluded. If you are going to buy a PS3 for R2, you'd have bought it for Resistance: Fall of Man. Did Gears 2 sell consoles? No it didn't.

Killzone 2 has a little sales potential, although not much. God of War III has a little more than that, and Gran Turismo 5 has a lot more than that. It has the system selling potential of Halo. In sales potential, GT5>MGS4>GoW3>KZ2>LBP>R2.

And 2008 didn't have a price cut, 2009 will.

So, logically, the PS3 should sell more this year than last year, right?

Sheesh.