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Forums - Sales - PS4, XBOX3, Wii2: Predictions

Chubear is... pretty disillusioned to how console history has worked. Never has a system with this much momentum completely lost its steam and died. The Wii's momentum is looking to break 40 million units by the end of 2008.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

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Well, Nintendo won't call it Wii 2, that's for sure



melbye said:
Well, Nintendo won't call it Wii 2, that's for sure

Just to head off a potential dissaster. I'll be banning the first person who says they'll name it Poo. 



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

stof said:
melbye said:
Well, Nintendo won't call it Wii 2, that's for sure

Just to head off a potential dissaster. I'll be banning the first person who says they'll name it Poo.

oh but they already have!

grab a Wiimote, turn it on its side, and read the FCC ID. Coincidence? I don't think so!

**NEXT NINTENDO CONSOLE NAMED POO CONFIRMED!**

 

 

 

;) 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

lol thats a funny name :P

Anyways I have to agree , tecnically the Wii2 will be somwhere around the X360 , while the other two will put a huge accent on next-gen physics , and finally we will see the first photorealistick Master Chief , Solid Snake , and we will be able to see Marios hairy chin :)



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I agree that for the next get the Wii2 will be much more powerful. Next time around I think Nintendo will have much more confidence of success and therefore will be prepared to even take a loss on the console to ensure longevity and greater developer support (for those that want to make fancy graphics).

I think the next generation will be much more interesting. Microsoft and Sony now know how much they have misinterpreted the gaming public and should have a much better shot at ousting Nintendo.

Re Chubear:

I've been playing and following the console wars since the NES so I know the history pretty well. I think you are not fully considering the install base and projected install base of a console on its longevity. The Wii has had an amazing start without many amazing games, everything seems to be pointing to a trouncing by Wii with potential lifetime sales maybe even exceeding the DS. Developers know this and know that if they make a killer game for the Wii they are looking phenomenal sales. These games will in turn drive more sales which drives more games and so on. With this stream of constant good games, similar to the stream the PS2 received, Wii's longevity is looking good. In 2009 people will still be looking for new games to buy developers will still be looking to satisfy this large amount of people. I think the Wii is pretty much guaranteed to survive if not flourish until the next generation and probably beyond then.

I think it is unlikely that Microsoft will pull out. I believe the Xbox 360 will in the end be almost profitable which is a big improvement on the original Xbox. I think they can improve upon this with the Xbox3. Even so, if Microsoft was just a games company I could see them pulling out as a possibility. However, they are Microsoft and have a large incentive to stay in. They want to have their name in and control almost every aspect of computing (and gaming which is a subset of computing) that they can. Some other example where they continue to compete despite either losing or making no money are: Internet Explorer, Direct X and .NET. They are a company that is thinking really long term I believe and winning a round of the console wars would be a huge boon to the company in more ways than profit. They can certainly afford to stick around.



I have have followed the GamingIndustry since PS1 and know about SNES,NES and part of the Atari generations and NO company has controlled for 3 gens in a row(except Nintendo in HANDHELDS(but that doesnt count))and when they try to get back in to the race they leave examples:Atari and SEGA neither has a company that has started out set records for amount sold example:Sony neither has a company came out and barely scratched the surface and stayed in example:Microsoft neither has a company stayed in for 5gens example:Nintendo(Atari came close with 5consoles in 4gens reason the second gen is broken into 2 parts:8bit and start of 16bit).

With this info at hand i think we can agree that nothing is the same in the industry anymore and we can go on what history "tells" us but things have changed since then and NOTHING is set in stone i.e.The Wii could stop selling NOTHING says it will keep selling like it is now all though the likelyhood is it will keep selling.What if the PS3 starts selling like crazy once R&C or MGS4 is released and it doesnt slow down the only thing saying that wont happen is CURRENT trends and they change.

Now to the NEXTGEN personally this thread came 1Christmas too early and we would have a better look on the future after Christmas07 but anyway.MS will release an Xbox3 just because they can and it will be subpar,offer nothing and have a online expererience getting more and more average due to Nintendo and Sony hammering the online part of games and consoles and XBL will still cost money.Unless Xbox3 takes everyone by storm and takes 1st place by a good 10million units sold i think they WON'T release an Xbox4 due to investers saying that they will stop investing and that their stock will decline and that they wont have a massive bankroll because Vista isnt selling and their OS's from here on will start to look less and less appealing when their up against MacOS or Linux and so this will hurt the rest of the company because they wont have the "unlimited" bank balance they seem to have now.Xbox3 WON'T have a HD disc format if Bluray wins because there is no chance in hell Sony would sell Bluray licensing to MS unless it looks really profitable for them.MS will have to come up with a new falgship game after Halo3 and it WON'T be GeOW because its 3rd party and Epic would never accept take over by MS due to loss of profits because MS wouldnt allow them to sell the UnrealEngine to other devs.If HDDVD losses then MS will buy HDDVD for games only so they have something that can compete with Sony's Bluray.

Nintendo will just play on the Wii and if history repeats itself and alot of you are sure this will happen then they will piss off devs again with their stupid policys and terms and conditions.They will keep making Mario,Zelda,Brawl and Metroid games by the truck load to keep the loyal fans loyal and the 3rd party titles wont get the sales even though the userbase is MASSIVE.The Wii2 will have good graphics,HD,much better Wiimote called Wiimote2 and the falgship game surprise surprise will be Mario and Zelda.Wii2 will use DVDs just like N64 used cartridges against PS CD the Wii2 will use DVD against PS4 Bluray and MS DVD/HDDVD(depends on what happens).Wii2 will have stunning online service and capabilities and all games will have some sought of online to them.VC will have GC games and Wii games on it because Nintendo will put a 100GB HDD in the Wii2 because it will be cheap to buy them when these consoles come out.Nintendo will probably make a console where they BreakEven from the getgo because of funds from Wii and they will start making profit quickly because things will go cheaper quicker.

Sony will go and see what the hell happened with PS3 and why it came 2nd and not 1st and fix that problem of PRICE with a nice starting price tag of $350-$399/£250-£300 and lower it within a year to $299-$350/£199-£250 and it will sell really good again.Online will be better than XBL because of 'Home' and they are really hitting the nail with online now just needs a few tweaks and it will be perfect and it will still be FREE.The controller will stay the good old fashioned way and won't change that much except that it will have a IR port on one side and a trigger(like a guncon) so during ALL FPS and TPS you can use the controller like a GunCon and during other games use the controller normally,the motion sensing will also be alot more accurate and easier to use and devs will use it much more than they are now.It will ONLY transmit in HD because 1.You cant buy SD TV's in many places now and 2.HDTV's will be cheap like what SDTV's where about a year ago.The new IPs that are coming out this gen(HS,InFamous,LAIR,EightDays etc etc)some of these(most likely HS,LAIR)will become established franchise and along with GT,R&C,Resistance,Motorstorm become flagship titles and shift consoles like a GTA does.FF and MGS(he says this is the last he also said MGS3 was the last but it wasnt) will be exclusives again and GTA will depend on whether Sony is buying R* or not.

The NEXTGEN will start around 2012-2014.Either MS or Sony will start it first depending on who losses this gen which is most likely MS.
Price points will be(without inflation rates):
Wii2:$275-$350 £200-£250
PS4:$350-$390 £250-£300
Xbox3:$350-$399 £250-£300
The price will be close the specs will be alot closer and the main thing will be 1st party games and 3rd party exclusives and this will be between Sony and Nintendo unless MS pulls another Halo like game and buys a well known studio like R*,S-E,Konami and all their games become exclusive later in this gen which will probably not happen.
This gen will end in this order:
Wii
PS3
X360
Unless PS3 goes down to $399/£250-£300 before MGS4 and GTAIV release then it will be much closer between PS3 and Wii.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

Soriku said:
@mitsuhide

Won't the PS4 have more advanced technology making it more expensive so not to lose money? And most likely S-E'll flock to Wii 2, and Namco. Maybe Konami, R*'ll stay Sony (at least with GTA maybe), all other JPN devs to Wii 2 (except maybe Capcom, but not entirely), etc. etc.

 It will have more advanced hardware but Sony wont price a console at $599/£425 again look at what happened the most i think they would go to would be $499/£350.

I think most S-E games will go to Wii2 and DSAdvance but i dont think the main FF series will.Capcom will keep the multiplatform plan and they will just release good games on all consoles.Namco will release games for Wii2 and PS4 which ones i dont know and couldnt guess.R* will most likely stay mostly Sony and Konami will stay mostly Sony.The reason i think JPN devs wont flock to the Wii2 is Nintendo's 1st party titles steal all the sales during holidays and a Nintendo game is released almost every month or anticipation stops people from buying 3rd party games because they are waiting for the Nintendo game coming out the next month.

EA,Ubi and all big western devs will release games on all platforms like they always have so not much will change there.The main puller of NEXTGEN will be 1st party software which Sony and Nintendo excel in and MS is only just getting their 1st party lineup and future lineup up and running with all the RPG's out this year.Sony and Nintendo also excel in 2nd party software,Nintendo to a lesser extent, MS's 2nd party is almost non exsistent except for GeOW and a couple of others.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

I actually anticipate that this generation will teach all of the companies the lessons that "Graphics do not sell consoles" and "Price Matters" ... I don't expect to see any console in the next generation sell for more than $300 (US) unless we see mass inflation.

From a hardware perspective I expect all three manufacturers to move towards a lower cost system based off of an asymetric multi-core processor that is designed specifically for gaming. AMD/ATI have been working towards integrating a GPU onto the CPU to produce a low cost, low energy, moderate performance solution for home computers; hypothetically speaking they could probably release a dual core processor today that had one or two CPU cores from a X2 and the GPU core from an X800/X1800. By the time the next generation begins you should be able to produce a CPU, Physics Processor, Audio Processor, GPU and a large cache of onprocessor memory as one large or two smaller processors (depending on whether you're using a 45nm or ~32nm process); it would also include a large supply of off chip memory.

As far as media goes, I expect most of the manufacturers to move towards a HD-optical media and have a pretty robust download service.

As far as controllers go I expect all of the manufacturers to incorporate some elements from the Wiimote (probably asymetric multi-part controllers that have motion control) with each company adding their own elements to it. One may end up producing different attachments than the others (a 4 button nunchuck rather than an analogue stick nunchuck as an example, or a touch screen or whatever) and the wiimote will undergo massive changes depending on the manufacture (more buttons, variety of layouts, etc.) but will be there in some form. 

 



@Soriku:
Where is the proof S-E will go back to Nintendo with FF?



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)