PS4, XBOX3, Wii2: Predictions

[thermal7]

I agree that for the next get the Wii2 will be much more powerful. Next time around I think Nintendo will have much more confidence of success and therefore will be prepared to even take a loss on the console to ensure longevity and greater developer support (for those that want to make fancy graphics).

I think the next generation will be much more interesting. Microsoft and Sony now know how much they have misinterpreted the gaming public and should have a much better shot at ousting Nintendo.

Re Chubear:

I've been playing and following the console wars since the NES so I know the history pretty well. I think you are not fully considering the install base and projected install base of a console on its longevity. The Wii has had an amazing start without many amazing games, everything seems to be pointing to a trouncing by Wii with potential lifetime sales maybe even exceeding the DS. Developers know this and know that if they make a killer game for the Wii they are looking phenomenal sales. These games will in turn drive more sales which drives more games and so on. With this stream of constant good games, similar to the stream the PS2 received, Wii's longevity is looking good. In 2009 people will still be looking for new games to buy developers will still be looking to satisfy this large amount of people. I think the Wii is pretty much guaranteed to survive if not flourish until the next generation and probably beyond then.

I think it is unlikely that Microsoft will pull out. I believe the Xbox 360 will in the end be almost profitable which is a big improvement on the original Xbox. I think they can improve upon this with the Xbox3. Even so, if Microsoft was just a games company I could see them pulling out as a possibility. However, they are Microsoft and have a large incentive to stay in. They want to have their name in and control almost every aspect of computing (and gaming which is a subset of computing) that they can. Some other example where they continue to compete despite either losing or making no money are: Internet Explorer, Direct X and .NET. They are a company that is thinking really long term I believe and winning a round of the console wars would be a huge boon to the company in more ways than profit. They can certainly afford to stick around.