16M is at the upper end of what I think it can sell next year, but still entirely possible.

I think it is a bit of exaggeration to call this prediction "shocking" or "insane". 20M would be shocking.

 Simply because of the competition. In 2008, the X360" stole" a couple of million sales from the $399 PS3.

This will be much harder in 2009 if PS3 drops his price to $299 and X360 only by $50 to $249.

Although as I said, if the PS3 is unable to drop that much, then the X360 will keep it's momentum.

So you mean ps3 will be over in next year?

kowenicki, just like you didn`t see, that after 1 year since 600$/euro PS3 price there will be 400$/euro costing PS3? =))

SDF confirmed ;) I reckon its a side account.

By the end of 2009, the 360 will have been out for 3 whole years. I don't see why the 360 can't be half the launch price by then, considering that some people are calling for Sony to halve PS3's price 2 years after the European launch. Your post screams "wishful thinking" as usual.

As for 16m 360s during 2009, I don't think so unless PS3 sales tank hard.

lol 4 whole years ....

Oops. :P

That makes my point even stronger hehe.

There is no doubt that recent 360 sales had outperformed MS expectation as well as those of most industry analysts.  I read some where that in light of this MS has readjusted their internal sales projection for 09 higher than 08.  However publically, in the face of economic uncertainty, MGS head Shane Kim had been careful to keep high expectation in check by stating that may be flat performance will be considered out performance.   With just two weeks left in 08 we can see that flat performance put the number squarely at 12 millions.   So as a safe bet we can pretty much expect MS to shoot for at least that in 09.   But frankly my feeling is that MS would be disappointed if they just do 12 millions, they are probably thinking of 14-16 millions. 

At this price point it is not all about price any more for MS.   They have achieved the price they believe they need to start grabbing the casual gamers.   Now they will focus more on providing the experience for this expanded audience.   We can see this happening in the majority of their holiday bundles.  Super Star Tennis, Leggo Indiana, Kung Fu Panda, are all aimed squarely at the casual family players.   This is better than bundling the system with a hardcore blockbuster like Gears 1 or Halo 3.  After all there are only so many millions of hardcore gamers like us.    

I expect much more aggressive push into the casual gaming market in 09 for MS.  They have not revealed much of their grand plan for 09 yet.  Maybe we will know much more by E3 09.  If they manage to produce a couple big hits for the casual-crowd and maintain at least the quantity of hard core production, then all of a sudden 16 millions will not be that far fetched.

You are insane!