There is no doubt that recent 360 sales had outperformed MS expectation as well as those of most industry analysts. I read some where that in light of this MS has readjusted their internal sales projection for 09 higher than 08. However publically, in the face of economic uncertainty, MGS head Shane Kim had been careful to keep high expectation in check by stating that may be flat performance will be considered out performance. With just two weeks left in 08 we can see that flat performance put the number squarely at 12 millions. So as a safe bet we can pretty much expect MS to shoot for at least that in 09. But frankly my feeling is that MS would be disappointed if they just do 12 millions, they are probably thinking of 14-16 millions.
At this price point it is not all about price any more for MS. They have achieved the price they believe they need to start grabbing the casual gamers. Now they will focus more on providing the experience for this expanded audience. We can see this happening in the majority of their holiday bundles. Super Star Tennis, Leggo Indiana, Kung Fu Panda, are all aimed squarely at the casual family players. This is better than bundling the system with a hardcore blockbuster like Gears 1 or Halo 3. After all there are only so many millions of hardcore gamers like us.
I expect much more aggressive push into the casual gaming market in 09 for MS. They have not revealed much of their grand plan for 09 yet. Maybe we will know much more by E3 09. If they manage to produce a couple big hits for the casual-crowd and maintain at least the quantity of hard core production, then all of a sudden 16 millions will not be that far fetched.
