The 360 could sell 16 Million consoles next year. (Yes im insane)

whatever

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whatever on 28 December 2008

If the PS3 gets to $299, it will outsell and steal sales from the 360. So it kinda depends on Sony as to whether or not this is possible.

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Slimebeast on 28 December 2008

CrazzyMan said:
Slimebeast, so you do BELIEVE, that during 2 years since last "pricecut" in NA for PS3 there won`t any more???

No. I DO believe PS3 will get a big price cut in 2009. I was just using the same argument against you since you don't seem to believe the X360 can drop his price in 2009.

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toastboy44562 on 28 December 2008

Slimebeast said:

kowenicki said:
so crazzyman and others above that think this is wildly optimistic.... what do you all think it will sell?

I'll put my final prediction in my sig when the Jan 3rd numbers come in, but I'm leaning towards:

X360 - 10 million
PS3 - 11.5 million

Because I still believe PS3 will be dropped to $299 in March, followed by a tiny $50 cut of the X360 60GB to $249 a couple of weeks later. The problem is that I don't know if the X360 will drop price with another $50 next Fall and steal the Holiday again, which could mean winning 2009 by selling 12 mill X360s.

I dont think there will be a price cut in march, they still lose about 50 dollars per console, mabye in 50 dollars in europe in march and 100 dollars in american during christmas.

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CrazzyMan on 28 December 2008

you don't seem to believe the X360 can drop his price in 2009.

Pricecut EVERY year? What about PROFIT?

Pricecut after 2 years(by Christmas time) for PS3 seems more realistically for me.

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2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.

Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Flame on 28 December 2008

If Sony doesn't make a price cut at all in '09, they can do it. MS has a hold on the HD gaming market with that $200 console on the loose.

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mrpapaye on 28 December 2008

HappySqurriel said:

I don't see it happening ...

To get a 60% increase in sales from one year to the next there would have to be a drastic change in how people see the platform; and (honestly) the XBox 360 has nothing on the horizon which could have this kind of effect. Price reductions and game announcements/releases generally are pretty front loaded in impact with some residual effect ...

Like you, a lot of people dont seem to understand it, it will only need a 33% increase (like squilliam has said) insales not 60%, thats quite different. =)

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Gh0st4lifE on 28 December 2008

What really matters is by how much the X will outperform PS3 in 2009

There is a little somthing called tipping point in network effects

On the demand side, a solid margin of 360 ahead means players will have more facilities sharing and discussing games with neighbours and friends, further increasing the value of the product.

On the supply side it means an even greater proportion of games will be developed either exclusively for the 360, or simply better crafted on it 360 than on the PS3 (as the competition got even tougher). Which also increases the value of the product.

The one thing that makes the 360 the winner on the HD segment is that it has managed attracting the customers with the highest willingness to pay. Developers love that.

As for the 360 selling 16 M this year, that seems pretty obvious to me. I'd say 20 M and I'm not crazy.

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ROBOTECHHEAVEN on 28 December 2008

i could the 360 selling around 14.5 million new 360's next year. specially with the economic times and maybe more if sony doesnt do a really good price cut.

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