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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS3 fall below 15% marketshare in Americas in 2009?

Seraphic_Sixaxis on 28 December 2008
seece said:
jlauro said:
I ran the numbers, and I agree it is possible. Given the higher price of the PS3, Christmas is it's only shot of having enough sales for it to do better. Failing to have much of a boost Q4 means it will almost certainly continue to loose market share in Americas.

I predict Q1 will be decent % wise, but that is more due to supply constrain of the wii, then the PS3 actually doing good. However, unless something changes, Q2-Q4 will have market share bleed by the PS3 in 2009.

2010 is more probable with no improvement, but 2009 is possible. It's also possible for a price cut, some unannounced exclusive to be release for the PS3, and for supply to meet demand as saturation nears and sales of the wii to fall closer to that of the 360. Another thing that would help PS3 sales is if they ever managed to make BC available on the low priced model, perhaps even dropping the PS2.

 

Theres a lot Sony can do in time, and that will help them. Right now though thing's don't look rosey. You think the Wii will be supply constrained in Q1? I know Nintendo ramped up production on november/december (so I heard on here) and I havn't seen as many reports of it being supply constrained, my sister coulnd't find one all christmas though.

I think Q1 will be the worst the PS3 has ever seen.

Here is the situation. People really will struggle to justify buying ANY games console right now. Christmas is over, there are bills that need paying and who knows if the recession is going to get any worse ( I'm not knowledgeable in that field I have just heard it will from various people)

Its a matter of waiting and seeing.

@Bolded- Now that is something i can agree with out a doubt. because those words mean alot when it comes to games now an days.

Also, i agree with 70% of your post aswell. :P

 



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Seece on 28 December 2008
numonex said:

I believe PS3 will only cut price by $50 in 2009. Ending 2009 with a $349 PS3 price tag.
MS will easily counter the $50 and match it on all of their SKU's making the Arcade only $149 by end of 2009. Pro at $249 Elite at $349.

Wii to streak away from the competition in 2009 remaining at its $249 price tag.

 

 

If Sony can only afford a 50% cut then it needs to be at christmas to try and get some momentum. A 50$ price cut will have worn off by christmas. I'm not sos sure M$ will cut the price, even if they can.



 

Seraphic_Sixaxis on 28 December 2008
numonex said:

I believe PS3 will only cut price by $50 in 2009. Ending 2009 with a $349 PS3 price tag.
MS will easily counter the $50 and match it on all of their SKU's making the Arcade only $149 by end of 2009. Pro at $249 Elite at $349.

Wii to streak away from the competition in 2009 remaining at its $249 price tag.

 

 

So...Basicly you think we'll only see a 50 dollar price drop next year for all PS3 SKU's? what about bundles?

I'd say 100 bux bare minimum pal. :/



Seece on 28 December 2008
Seraphic_Sixaxis said:
numonex said:

I believe PS3 will only cut price by $50 in 2009. Ending 2009 with a $349 PS3 price tag.
MS will easily counter the $50 and match it on all of their SKU's making the Arcade only $149 by end of 2009. Pro at $249 Elite at $349.

Wii to streak away from the competition in 2009 remaining at its $249 price tag.

 

 

So...Basicly you think we'll only see a 50 dollar price drop next year for all PS3 SKU's? what about bundles?

I'd say 100 bux bare minimum pal. :/

Why don't you detail to me the situation Sony are in?

  • Money is lost on every PS3 sold.
  • Production WILL get cheaper for the PS3 in 09

Ok thats fine, so the PS3 can finally sell making a profit!!!!!!!

 

Oh but wait ... a price cut ... oh damn no more profit from the PS3, back to losses. Sony need PROFIT. Right now. More than ever. They need to sell the PS3 at a profit, they need for their games to sell.

 



 

Ries-art on 28 December 2008

Euhm... America in a big recession cause they don't know that you can't spend $ 200 if you only have a hundred. Hell, let's get another creditcard!! So now they have to buy a crappy console with old technology because they can't afford a ps3. Smart people...



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numonex on 28 December 2008
seece said:
Seraphic_Sixaxis said:
numonex said:

I believe PS3 will only cut price by $50 in 2009. Ending 2009 with a $349 PS3 price tag.
MS will easily counter the $50 and match it on all of their SKU's making the Arcade only $149 by end of 2009. Pro at $249 Elite at $349.

Wii to streak away from the competition in 2009 remaining at its $249 price tag.

 

 

So...Basicly you think we'll only see a 50 dollar price drop next year for all PS3 SKU's? what about bundles?

I'd say 100 bux bare minimum pal. :/

Why don't you detail to me the situation Sony are in?

  • Money is lost on every PS3 sold.
  • Production WILL get cheaper for the PS3 in 09

Ok thats fine, so the PS3 can finally sell making a profit!!!!!!!

 

Oh but wait ... a price cut ... oh damn no more profit from the PS3, back to losses. Sony need PROFIT. Right now. More than ever. They need to sell the PS3 at a profit, they need for their games to sell.

 

Sony might continue to sell PS3 at a loss into the future. Hopefully the huge expected game sales by analysts and fan boys will make lots of profits for Sony which will counter the losses made on PS3 consoles. More console market share = more software sales = more profits for Sony.

 



Seraphic_Sixaxis on 28 December 2008

@seece- Ah damnit...now i have to put effort into this. oh well.

Well my my personal theory on the subject is...

A) Yes Sony will finally be able to make a profit in 2009 YAY! but a price cut...
B) ... Could damage there overall profit from the PS3 itself But we are all forgetting a Major factor that almost everyone seems to be forgetting....

I'll continue later on, the results may be rather shocking.



Pete_Beast on 28 December 2008

A game, unless bundled, won't chnage sales dramatically 2 months after its release. Price and advertising does thetrick, and those are fields Sony needs to step into.



SMcc1887 on 28 December 2008

No, Blu-Ray will be more appealing in 09 but really it depends on a price cut



jlauro on 28 December 2008
seece said:

Theres a lot Sony can do in time, and that will help them. Right now though thing's don't look rosey. You think the Wii will be supply constrained in Q1? I know Nintendo ramped up production on november/december (so I heard on here) and I havn't seen as many reports of it being supply constrained, my sister coulnd't find one all christmas though.

I think Q1 will be the worst the PS3 has ever seen.

Here is the situation. People really will struggle to justify buying ANY games console right now. Christmas is over, there are bills that need paying and who knows if the recession is going to get any worse ( I'm not knowledgeable in that field I have just heard it will from various people)

Its a matter of waiting and seeing.

Yes, wii is still supply constrained.  It just goes without saying now, that no one bothers to mention it anymore.  It's only mentioned when it's available...

Nintendo has always had poor sales in Q1 with the DS and Wii.  They always rush their January and part of Feb production to Q4 of the previous year.  It's not just the Wii, but for many years often times it can be hard to find a DS in January.  It's just the way Nintendo does they manufacturing and distribution.