The Wii is a very popular machine, and, if the last generation's sales trends repeat themselves, and the market has grown considerably, it would most certainly outsell the PS2.

Those are some big ifs. I think the market has grown, but the Wii has much stronger competition than the PS2 did at this point in its lifespan, and I have a strong feeling that Nintendo will end production of the Wii, replacing it with another upgraded version, before it ever hits 130M.

I'm not saying that the PS2 was "more popular", because it wasn't. I am saying that this generation is much different from the last, and expecting history to repeat itself here is folly.

Nintendo is not held back from the first to release a new console in the next gen -- the Wii will be easy to upgrade. It has lots of room to grow before Nintendo needs to do any serious R&D on a truly new platform. Why would Nintendo let Microsoft be first out the door at all? Microsoft has stated before that they plan to release first in the next gen as well.

Is it a good business plan to allow your competitors to bump up the "bar", and not respond in kind, when you are easily capable of doing so? Nintendo is so sure of the Wii's success for the next generation as well, that they will not produce a Wii HD... ever? They will abandon BC, because they like to push "reset" on their us erbase, and 3rd party development, each gene ration?

The Wii will not outsell the PS2 because it is so popular. The Wii HD will end its life before it can stretch to the PS2's number.  The most popular products spawn successors faster.  Nintendo loves to put out upgrades.  Only if you consider the next Wii to be a Wii (and then you may as well consider the GameCube a "pre-Wii", too), will it ever top the PS2.

This.

Why wiuld nintendo release a Wii HD, until the Wii stops selling, you really don't get nintendo, they are all about the benjamins, there will be no new system until the Wii starts to die

They could release a Wii HD, but it probably wouldn't be the system that people suggest ... Essentially, I wouldn't be that surprised if Nintendo did some of the following in 2009 to maintain demand:

1. Integrated the CPU, GPU and 1-Transistor memory onto one chip, and used a slot-loaded laptop DVD drive to shrink the size of the Wii.
2. Added a hardware scaler (much like an upscaling DVD player) to reduce pixelation for the Wii on LCD HDTVs
3. Introduced colors
4. Add value through bundling Wii Sports Resort or a Second Wiimote/Nunchuck
5. Reduced the price of the Wii to $199

Certainly, they wouldn't do everything but hardware scalers are inexpensive enough that it could easily be added to the Wii for minimal added cost.

The numbers speak for themselves. The Wii is selling better than the PS2 ever did and it's still growing.

Nintendo still has a ton of things they can so to stimulate sales, not the least of which is reducing price.

I'd expect a few revisions of the Wii (similar to DS lite and DSi) before we ever see a Wii2. Don't forget Nintendo kept NES around for 10 years.

So I can't imagine how the Wii could not outsell the PS2, unless a new 'cooler' system enters the market next year.

1. Wii has been on the market for 2 years. So if it has 4 year life span, there should be 2 years left, not 3.

2. Assuming Wii's life span is so short that the demand of it would become zero after 2 years, it has a chance to outsell PS1 with 4 year life span.

3. GTA series ousells any Wii games? huh?

You should read the post by TheSource on page 6. At least his post makes sense.

If the Wii and PS2 continue to sell at their current rates for the next four years -what you claim its remaining lifespan is- then the Wii will catch up to, but not quite pass, the PS2. It will far surpass the PS1, however, and there's also the fact that the PS2 is in decline while the Wii is not.

By the way, taking the whole GTA series and comparing it to single Wii games is an invalid and absurd comparison: puerile fanboyism at its finest, but perhaps to be expected, given the game you tried to put forth as an example. Still smarting from the fact that Mario Kart outsold your last big hormonal rush?

Don't you know?  Leading consoles have short life spans.  Also, Mario Kart Wii outselling both versions of GTAIV combined doesn't count because it has both Wii and Mario in the title

Wii will pass the PS2 in 2011