Will the Wii outsell PS2?

[im_sneaky]

Groucho said:

The Wii is a very popular machine, and, if the last generation's sales trends repeat themselves, and the market has grown considerably, it would most certainly outsell the PS2.

Those are some big ifs. I think the market has grown, but the Wii has much stronger competition than the PS2 did at this point in its lifespan, and I have a strong feeling that Nintendo will end production of the Wii, replacing it with another upgraded version, before it ever hits 130M.

I'm not saying that the PS2 was "more popular", because it wasn't. I am saying that this generation is much different from the last, and expecting history to repeat itself here is folly.

Nintendo is not held back from the first to release a new console in the next gen -- the Wii will be *easy* to upgrade. It has lots of room to grow before Nintendo needs to do any serious R&D on a truly new platform. Why would Nintendo let Microsoft be first out the door at all? Microsoft has stated before that they plan to release first in the next gen as well.

Is it a good business plan to allow your competitors to bump up the "bar", and not respond in kind, when you are easily capable of doing so? Nintendo is so sure of the Wii's success for the next generation as well, that they will not produce a Wii HD... ever? They will abandon BC, because they like to push "reset" on their userbase, and 3rd party development, each generation?

The Wii will not outsell the PS2 *because* it is so popular. The Wii HD will end its life before it can stretch to the PS2's number.  The most popular products spawn successors faster.  Nintendo *loves* to put out upgrades.

 

This.