"There's no way it can sell to xx% of the userbase!"

Going by VGC data...

Super Smash Bros Melee (JP):
360k first week on 475k GC's (76%)

Halo 3 (America):
2.84m first week on 7.64m X360's (38%)

Final Fantasy X (JP):
1.91m first week on 5.17m PS2's (37%)

Final Fantasy VII (JP):
2.03m first week on 5.23m PS1's (39%)

Some interesting first month sales...

Gears of War (America):
1.32m first 4 weeks on 3.97m X360's (33%)
2.10m first 8 weeks on 5.08 X360's (41%)

Mario Kart 64 (JP):
1.06m first 4 weeks on 1.71m N64's (62%)

Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (JP):
2.43m first 4 weeks on 4.01m GBA's (61%)
3.70m first 8 weeks on 4.94m GBA's (75%)

Remember, these games also move quite a few consoles, which makes the attach rate a bit lower. For the multiple week sales, I took the final totals of the userbase (when Pokemon R/S came out, GBA was at 3.8m).

LOL....no way this game will hit 1 million in japan....it will most likely hit 400K in its first week....it will take 2 years to make 1 million

Yes it will.

Fixed

On-Topic: It should do

If I recall, it's the first time a mainline FF isn't on the best-selling console in Japan.

We'll soon know the true power of the franchise.

Well I think every Final Fantasy since VII sold at least 2 million launch week. Everything under 1.5 million first week will be a huge dissapointment for the series.

A million is not even a question, it will definitely sell that, the question is what SE expects it to sell, since it's more expensive than previous FF's.

1 million units sold is a realistic amount LTD from an installed base of 2.61 M in Japan for the PS3.

Don't know if it'll sell over 1 million it's first week, but it will definitely sell over 1 million copies on the PS3 in Japan within a few weeks I would think.  If it doesn't, Sony is in trouble.

It will most likely sell 300,000k-500,000 in the first two weeks given the current installed base in Japan. Why do Sony fans put so much faith in Japan when the west has far larger sales? I don't even care if its exclusive  in Japan. It still makes no sense. Japan will not carry any sales that count this gen.

another one with the install base = sales thinking. *sigh* Wish people learnt about market saturation before they come on this thread and embarass themselves. :(