Well, personally I believe that this will be the case.
Wii: 140-160M
Ps3: 45-55M
X360: 45-55M
So I have this gen at ~ 250M.
A good growth from ~ 190M last gen. (30%)
What is very oftenly missed though, is the handhelds.
DS: 180-210M
PsP: 75-85M
Total: ~ 275M
That is more than all previous generations of handhelds combined. As a matter of fact - DS alone has a change of outselling them all. I repeat, DS alone has a chance of outselling all the 3 previous major Nintendo handhelds combined.
The handheld market is up over 300% over last generation. Don't stand there and meddle about how the consoles increased 30-40%, which by the way is nothing special.
3rd = 75M (~ 150% increase)
4th = ~ 95M (26% increase)
5th = ~ 155M (63% increase)
6th = ~ 195M (26% increase)
What this generation is doing, is expanding the number of people playing on each console, so that more people play the console. The number of people playing has a dramatic increase, which is being seen with the software sales. What isn't increasing so much, is the number of consoles sold, although that could be major too (50% if Wii really takes off).
(Note: I ripped a bit of that of Khuutra, so should just say that...)