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Forums - Sales - White Knight Chronicles sales predictions?

DeotoxSlayer on 12 December 2008

First week: 200-300k
Lifetime: 450k-1mil

It could sell more than a million if it ends up being really good and popular and I hope it sells way over 1mil casue I think Level 5 definetly deserves it but unfortunatly it most likely won't.



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CAL4M1TY on 12 December 2008

I'm going to say 400k worldwide at launch week, 3 million lifetime.

Anything below these figures (edit: I meant anything below the launch week figures. The 3 mill is a bit of a stretch) and the PS3 is bust in the JRPG department, which means unless they flood the market with Gundam games, the PS3 is done in Japan.



Cactus on 12 December 2008

I honestly have no idea what this will sell, so i'll be conservative and guess 130k first week.



The Anarchyz on 13 December 2008
Aiemond said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
MontanaHatchet said:
Aiemond said:
500k lifetime is most likely. What's gonna push this game? TWEWY was on a system with a large rpg fanbase, had very good reviews and gameplay, and was a SE game. It did not do 500k first week by any means. There is no real reason this will either.

That's one example, and there's no real reason it will or won't sell well. That's like saying the sales of one platformer will determine the sales of another. GRID didn't sell well on the PS3, so neither will Gran Turismo.

 

 

The problem with this analogy is that Gran Turismo is a very very big and thus your whole analogy fails. Niether TWEWY or WKC is an established IP. So, the comparison I made is valid. The DS right now is the medium of choice for many rpg fans. TWEWY is a very good game, that reviewed well. It is made by a popular company, Square. It is a new IP. It may be on a different platform than WKC, but it is one that has pushed far more software than the PS3 in japan on a title by title basis.

Now for WKC. It looks good. I don't know what the reviews will say, but I am going to assume they are good. it is made by a good developer, level 5, but it is not quite as big as SE. The platform it sells on has a very much smaller userbase, and alot fewer RPGs on it. So, to expect it to sell as big as TWEWY would be a very big achievement, one I am going to say it makes. This would be a success for a ps3 rpg imo.

So, a similar type of game, both with high quality and a similar name recognition can be compared, even on different platforms. It would be like comparing two new shooters sales wise.

It was a very quick analogy, and there are DOZENS of possible examples. You could think of hundreds of games from each genre on each console that could be compared to each other sales wise, but didn't exactly end up the same way. Touchmaster launched to sales of 14k worldwide, and so did Touch the Dead. On one end, Touchmaster reached 1.2 million and climbing. Touch the Dead is still at 150k. Established IPs are important in Japan, but plenty of games have managed to find success without relying on brand name. I'm not saying that White Knight will as well, but let's not count it out just yet. The World Ends With You is a very strange game sales wise, and I have no idea why it sold so poorly in Japan. Perhaps a lack of advertising? While the DS is the console of choice for RPG owners, the home consoles definitely have their share as well. The 360 has seen a consistent number of RPGs released, the Wii has the highest selling of the generation on a home console, and the PS3 has Final Fantasy 13 and Versus 13 (easily the two most hyped games on the platform, with FF13 being exclusive to the PS3 in Japan). Even if it only had half the attach rate of some of the 360's big RPGs, it could push 300k or more easily.

 

 

Your right, sometimes sales go against what you would think. But, this is a sales site and we are in a sales discussion thread, so I am trying ot use past evidence to support why I think certain numbers are the most likely scenario.

@Gabriel: Dragon Quest is by far the biggest franchise in all of Japan, and its gameplay is ver, very old fashioned.

 

 

If you're talking about JRPGS, Pokemon is the biggest

If you're talking overall, Mario is the biggest



Khuutra on 13 December 2008

Pokemon's bigger than Mario in Japan, and so is Dragon Quest nowadays.



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Gearbox on 13 December 2008

i think this game has a huge shot at being huge



Malachi on 13 December 2008
Khuutra said:
Pokemon's bigger than Mario in Japan, and so is Dragon Quest nowadays.

The 5.5 million NSMB sold in Japan disagree with you about DQ.

Anyway, I say 1 million LTD WW.

 



Persons without argument hide behind their opinion

c0rd on 14 December 2008

2D Mario > DQ >>>> 3D Mario.

OT: I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Some people are posting huge numbers, when was the last time a new JRPG got that big? I'm skeptical of it. Here are my guesses, and I think they're on the high side:

Japan: 170k first week, 270k lifetime.

WW: 850k lifetime.

My worldwide number may seem low, but I think the problem is the JRPG audience is split across all three consoles this gen. We'll see if my theory is correct, soon enough.

I have a feeling people are putting too much hope into this (for the PS3)... don't be surprised when the game doesn't make much of an impact in Japan. Just be patient and wait for Yakuza 3.



Khuutra on 14 December 2008
Malachi said:
Khuutra said:
Pokemon's bigger than Mario in Japan, and so is Dragon Quest nowadays.

The 5.5 million NSMB sold in Japan disagree with you about DQ.

Anyway, I say 1 million LTD WW.

 

Fair point. I admit that I was thinking of the console Mario more than the handheld Mario. My one true weakness!



mibuokami on 14 December 2008
c0rd said:

2D Mario > DQ >>>> 3D Mario.

OT: I think people are getting ahead of themselves. Some people are posting huge numbers, when was the last time a new JRPG got that big? I'm skeptical of it. Here are my guesses, and I think they're on the high side:

Japan: 170k first week, 270k lifetime.

WW: 850k lifetime.

My worldwide number may seem low, but I think the problem is the JRPG audience is split across all three consoles this gen. We'll see if my theory is correct, soon enough.

I have a feeling people are putting too much hope into this (for the PS3)... don't be surprised when the game doesn't make much of an impact in Japan. Just be patient and wait for Yakuza 3.

 

I think you're undershooting its Japan first week and LTD sale, considering there is more than twice the install base as the 360, I'd say 200-250k first week would be achievable with 500k LTD.

Oddly, I agree with you on the WW LTD, I think this game will underperformin in the west.

Also we are forgetting the biggest wildcard WKC has, which is that online aspect of the game. If this catch on in Japan the way Monster Hunter did, I would expect its sale to reach massive proportion.