Astrodust said: Ishy said: lol at sqrl love your prediction but I'd say mario galaxy will only outsell mario bros.3 which is the highest selling non pack in game at 19 million sold. |
Mario Galaxy will not outsell Mario Bros. 3 because it is coming out at an early stage in the Wii's life cycle. There aren't enough Wii's out there for that to happen. However if the Wii userbase gets up to say 100 million then it might have a chance with the Mario brand being popular and all. Plus Mario 3 came out at a time where people didn't have to make as many choices. There are more systems and more games then ever before. |
I don't think that SMG coming out in the first part of the Wii's life will have too much negative impact on its sales. Super Mario Sunshine came out only 11 months after the Gamecube did (5 months for Europeans)* and yet it ended up with 5.91 million copies sold -- the third best seller on the Wii -- for a 27% attach rate. That last number is better than what Halo got.
And the NES got a total of 1,321 games.* That may not be as many as the PS2 got, but it is plenty of competition for a game coming out 5 years into the console's life cycle, thank you very much.
As for the number of systems, there are certainly not more than "ever before".
--This hardware cycle has the Wii, XB360, and PS3. THREE.
--Last hardware cycle had the Dreamcast (albeit short-lived), PS2, GCN, Xbox. FOUR.
--Before that was N64, PS1, Saturn, and a couple systems with very small market share (CD-i, 3DO). THREE-PLUS.
--Before that SNES, Genesis (with add-ons), TurboGrafx-16 (small userbase but still). Neo-Geo first came out in this era for the wealthy and truly hardcore. ($650 plus $200 per game!) THREE-PLUS.
--Before that NES, Atari (several consoles), Sega Master System, and many consoles with small market share. THREE-PLUS.
--So, in reality, there are actually FEWER consoles now than ever before, or equally as many as usual if you exclude the little guys that got nowhere and/or failed badly.
But the interesting thing here is that usually two consoles come out on top in a close race, or not-so-close, but there is a third that does so badly people don't remember it next to the bigger "console war". I bet a lot of people don't even remember that Italy was Nazi Germany's big ally in WWII. They only remember Germany and Japan. Bad analogy but you get the point.
*Source: Wikipedia (Gamecube, Super Mario Sunshine, Nintendo Entertainment System articles)