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Forums - Sales Discussion - End of generation Predictions

All these predictions are very safe, but 2 or 3. 

 

* The Wii will end on more than 50% marketshare Incredibly likely. 

* The PS3 and 360 will end on similar hardware sales (within about 10 million of each other) Cannot see how this won't happen. 

* By the end of the generation, the majority of big budget 3rd party releases will be on the Wii (not neccassarily Wii exclusive) Won't happen. Wii games will always be lower priced to make. If  S-E makes FF14 and KH3 for Wii, they might still not have the majority of their budget on Wii, as they are cheaper to make on it. 

* Nintendo will be last to release an 8th gen home console, or approximately equal last (ie within a month of a competitor) Seems probable. Why would Nintendo rush? Only way I see this not happening, is by a 4th company joining in after Nintendo. 

* All home consoles will be released in their first region within 13 months of each other Also likely, but something else could happen. A  iWii "expansion" is possible, which could extend the Wii  a fair amount of time. 

* The Wii will be on sale in Japan, USA, and Western Europe until later than the PS360 No doubt about it. 

* The 360 will sell more software than the PS3, and will have the highest attach ratio of any console ever First part is pretty certain, second, depends. There might be some small machine that has a higher AR. If you count major consoles (10M +), I believe the GC has the highest AR at 9.6. X360 should have a very good change of beating that. 

* The PS4, Wii2 and Xbox 720 will all exist, though possibly with better names :P 

* The DS2 and PSP2 will exist. Once again, maybe different names

* An xbox portable will not be released in the 8th gen



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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By the end of the generation Midway will be bankrupt.



Nate said:
By the end of the generation Midway will be bankrupt.

 

that's cheap... everyone knows this



@cueil

lol so true.
________

hmmm

my prediction:

Wii will win consoles wise

DS will win handhelds wise

:)



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

scottie said:

Ok, basically I'm curious as to people's end of generation state of the industry predictions.

 

I am going on record saying the following (by the time all three consoles stop selling)

 

* The Wii will end on more than 50% marketshare Likely

* The PS3 and 360 will end on similar hardware sales (within about 10 million of each other) Very Likely

* By the end of the generation, the majority of big budget 3rd party releases will be on the Wii (not neccassarily Wii exclusive) Doubt it

* Nintendo will be last to release an 8th gen home console, or approximately equal last (ie within a month of a competitor)
If so then I expect SONY's console to be withen 2 months b4 the next Nintendo Unit. If not then I expect SONY to be last within a few months of the 2nd.

* All home consoles will be released in their first region within 13 months of each other Likely

* The Wii will be on sale in Japan, USA, and Western Europe until later than the PS360 Slithtly doubt that. I think SONY wants to keep the PS3 selling as much as possible. Quite possible that both the Wii and PS3 will last quite some time.

* The 360 will sell more software than the PS3, and will have the highest attach ratio of any console ever Both Likely

* The PS4, Wii2 and Xbox 720 will all exist, though possibly with better names :P Without a doubt in my mind

* The DS2 and PSP2 will exist. Once again, maybe different names Also sure of this

* An xbox portable will not be released in the 8th gen Me no care

 

If you doubt any of these predictions, I'd like to hear it. Provide an explanation of why you believe this if you wish, but I would rather this stay as a sales prediction thread than a 'which is the best console' thread


Just my thoughts.



4 ≈ One

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I'd say

Wii
PS3
360

All PS3 needs is a price cut and a few more big hitters (big games coming next year, so 1/2 )

The thing is, if PS3 really is 10 years, and M$ and Nintendo bring out a new console, PS3 could catch up on the dead consoles and win (PS3 could be seen as a 7.5 Gen console :D )



Wii: 140 million
PS3: 60 millon
X360: 55 million



AaronSOLDIER said:
I'd say

Wii
PS3
360

All PS3 needs is a price cut and a few more big hitters (big games coming next year, so 1/2 )

The thing is, if PS3 really is 10 years, and M$ and Nintendo bring out a new console, PS3 could catch up on the dead consoles and win (PS3 could be seen as a 7.5 Gen console :D )

But this would mean that Sony will skip the next generation all together, since they know the hard lesson of releasing their console a year late. And the moment the PS4 is released, the PS3 support will sink like a boat anchor.



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

SMcc1887 said:
PS4 will launch first at a cheap price with loads of games. It will use cell and Blu Ray. M$ console will be the most expensive, Nintendo will not have as much success as they are having.

 

Way off buddy, I promise you that all 3 of the big boys will keep their consoles cheap in the next gen.  MS & Nintendo proved that it works, and Sony is getting left behind because of their $400.00 entry level console.  So I assure you that no one will make that mistake again (at least not in the next generation).

In my opinion, because Sony has already set the bar for technology so high for themselves and because of the Blu-ray format, theirs almost has to be the most expensive next generation too.

Can you imagine them releasing the cheapest console next gen and saying, "Hey Sony-fans, buy our cheap, inferior-to-the-PS3-console, you'll be glad you did."?

It just doesn't make sense.  Plus, Sony has the worst money problems of the 3 anyway, so they can't do bargain basement pricing... they gotta keep their prices high to avoid sinking.  I'm still in favor of a Sony/MS morph system next generation as I feel it's the only way to overtake Nintendo in sales.  It won't happen of course, but it would be smart.  But everyone knows that Sony & MS both want to be the king too bad to let that happen.



MarioKart:

Wii Code:

2278-0348-4368

1697-4391-7093-9431

XBOX LIVE: Comrade Tovya 2
PSN ID:

Comrade_Tovya

Prediction: there will be no clear ending to the generation. The next microsoft system could come 2010 or 2011, and the next sony system might not come until 2013 or 2014. In essance this will be the first time we have overlapped generations: Nintendo and Microsoft on one scale, and Sony on another. Sony could release a PS3 slim with a fast loading blu-ray drive to counter Microsoft's next system. Over the long haul there's really no way the PS3 doesn't sell more than the 360, but it will be on a longer timescale.

Sales prediction with the last year they are still relevent in the market

Wii: 130 million through 2012

PS3: 90 million through 2016

360: 60 million through 2012