@ Stoff

I see your point, and I misunderstood where you were coming from at first, I had taken a though to what my friends had said over the long run not just the quater and what I had felt over the long run, even with the big wii releases this year few of them had sparked my interest and my friends the way they used to, but i completly see your point now! sorry for my misunderstanding amongst all the crap.

I thought you were looking at something completly different.

considering the line up third party line up HD consoles have 2009 god you have to be a fanboy to not get one.
it's just that good =O

IMO, it will be a long time before the PS3 will drop to a mass market price point, therefore, I don't forsee its marketshare threatening the Wii anytime soon.

The Xbox on the other hand has already reached this price point and this will have a direct effect on PS3 sales more than the Wii, given that they are similar products. This I feel is supported by the sales of both HD formats over recent weeks.

I think the battle is really between the two HD formats, and the Wii is somewhat disconnected from it all, leaving its marketshare unaffected. It offers a somewhat different experience and caters for a different (but much larger) audience.

Finally, the Wii will gain momentum next year with games, motion plus, and if neccesary, a price drop or new sku.

Ehm, since this is about anecdotal evidence here's my story:

I've been playing Mass Effect a lot lately, but still played Shaun White Snowboarding on Wii more.

Really, some people are so worried about the Wii that they have to come up with all this nonsense about "dust gathering". Sure there will be people whose Wii's are gathering dust, but for most people there is more then enough extremely good content to feed the blue light once every while.

I keep saying this but Wii offers a huge collection of retro games which a lot of gamers will love. The graphics issue is overblown, I think most people want to play great games and graphics are only a part of the experience.

And like stof said: there have been loads of big budget games coming out for the HD consoles lately. Let's see next year when a lot of Wii exclusive core games release how multi-console owners divide their game time.

I'm pretty sure that those other people you talked to were the six people who voted in your other thread. There are several problems with that.

First, your sample size is tiny in comparision to the millions and millions of console owners. Your evidence is only anecdotal at this point.

Second, your are polling a video game forum, where you will find the most dedicated gamers. That will cause a bias in the answers you receive, and so your data cannot be applied to the population at large.

As for some sort of user shift from the Wii, that just doesn't seem to be happening. The Wii has consistently outsold the PS3 and 360 combined for the better part of a year now. Nothing that Sony or Microsoft has done has seemed to have any effect on the success of Nintendo. I just don't see what you are talking about.

In terms of software, the Wii is right where it should be. Take a look at this excellent post by Sqrl fpr evidence of that.  If there was a shift, either software or hardware for the Wii would be underperforming, but it is not.

That's cool man.

I'd love to have a 360. Fable was one of my favourite games last gen and come on... FALLOUT 3! There are tons of HD games I'd like to play (I imagine I'll get one of those consoles a few years down the line), and I'm sure many others feel that way. This gen will have more multi console ownership than any other. But that goes both ways. The Wii offers a totally new experience (I'm posting here between vicious Wii boxing bouts).

If everyone was willing to fork out hundreds for multiple consoles, I imagine everybody would have at least a Wii and one of the HDer's if not all 3, but a lot of people just aren't willing to buy two consoles no matter how different they are.

I agree that HD consoles will continue to sell well and that a lot of people will enjoy them more than the Wii, I just think a lot of people will enjoy the Wii as well, and whether they enjoy it more or as much as the HD consoles is irrelevant if they're still buying and playing games for it. And as long as the games worth buying come out, there will be.

FYI - On the issue of HD consoles having a ~6 attach ratio versus the Wii at a ~5 attach ratio.

The problem here is that the longer someone owns a console the more software they will have and the higher the attach ratio will go for that system. HD consoles combined have, on average, been owned for 24.84% longer than the Wii has. Or specifically, the HD consoles average 59.33 weeks of ownership as of last week while the Wii averages 47.52 weeks of ownership.

Given the average rate of software purchase, this difference of nearly 12 weeks is actually around 1.5 games difference in the corrected attach ratio. In short, attach ratios are not a direct indication of the rate of software sales, they are at best an approximation that is far easier to calculate than a true rate of sales.

To understand why attach ratios are not a rate of sales consider that attach ratio is software divided by hardware and that a rate has to do with time...time being a variable which is missing from that formula.

I referance one of Sqrl's posts and he shows up four minutes later to comment, lol.

yeah I completly agree with the wii totaly dominating this gen for years to come and nothing will cut into its market share, thats obvious unless all nintendos factories burnt down. I guess the more I think about it though if wii users or new comers shifted to the cheaper x box (you can get the 60gig for a better deal in Aus then a wii) nintendo has alot of good stuff around the corner like you said xponent and that will keep its sales high even if 360 sales stay up.

the only way I see the HD market winning this gen is for the ps3 to have a price drop and I had some hopes it might come down but if you guys dont think it will then I couldnt see a shift from SD to HD any much bigger then the small one that will occur from the cheaper 60gig 360

So when you mention the HD consoles fighting it out, are you saying that if 360 sales increase ps3 sales with decrease and vice versa as the market demand for a HD console stays the same, just split betwene the two?

"So when you mention the HD consoles fighting it out, are you saying that if 360 sales increase ps3 sales with decrease and vice versa as the market demand for a HD console stays the same, just split betwene the two?"


I would say that the moves Sony and Microsoft make will have a bigger effect on each other. That is because their consoles are so similar.

The unique qualities of the Wii keep it somewhat insulated from the other two, but I would not say that it is impervious. It would just take a whole lot more for Sony or Microsoft to cut into Nintendo's sales.