I agree mostly with theSource.

PS3 might have some positive buzz with Warhawk, Heavenly Sword (People love button mashers, as much as a Nintendo Motion fanboy as I am I have played through that demo 100 times), and Haze. Also there are a lot of second tier releases that are going to be all over TV (ads) for PS3. This number could go above 2 mil.

360 has the largest std.dev. if you ask me. So many factors, $50 price drop (enough), hardware Problems vs. Halo 3, Big New IPs (Bioshock and Mass Effect), and Possibility of Software Price Drops.

We don't consider that otfen enough into long term predictions, but I think that the PS2 success had a lot to do with the number of $20-30 games available by holiday '01. Families and Young Adults take that heavily into consideration. This may have a big effect on 360, and to a lesser extent Wii. 360 has the most to gain or lose.

Wii has the most to gain, if they can get shipments up. If Nintendo cares about market share (which they do but not at the expence of loss), they NEED to get as many Wii's into homes this year (they need to sell 5-6 mil in this time to do it IMO) as possible.

If they want to eliminate any threat all the way through Holiday 08 they can if they reach 18-20 million at the end of 07. Then Sony and MS would have to extend their life cycles, and hold out for major hardware revisions and price cuts for when HD TV's become more prevelant and prices are more mass market, until then they will cater to a niche market.

Check the numbers I posted earlier! In 2002, 2003, and 2006, XBox or 360 sold roughly 500K units in November. In 2004, the month Halo 2 launched, they sold 700K. By December, the impact had worn off, as 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006 all had similar Decembers.

Certain games absolutely cause major one-time jumps. And Halo will cause the largest we'll see outside of Japan, because of how front-loaded it is. There are similarly popular franchises in America, but none as front-loaded.

While I would love to see Nintendo sell an additional 4M units in the last five months of this year, it has taken them just under nine months to reach 4M so far in the Americas. So while Nintendo will sell every last Wii they make before the holidays, there won't be a total of 8M in the Americas by December 31, 2007. I expect about 7.25M instead.

(Some of the figures I used to come up with my prediction: with a the current rate of manufacture of 1.25M and slowly increasing to 1.5M, and Nintendo allocating roughly 40% of all units to the Americas, that would give Nintendo an additional 2.75M Wiis shipped over here by the end of the year. If the rumors are true and Nintendo of America has been stockpiling a few Wiis for later in the year, I don't believe it would be anything more than about a half million units in the States. So that would be a total of 3.25M.)

I think your numbers for the 360 are spot on. There are so many positive and negative variables in play with the system that most will cancel each other out and leave only a modest increase in sales for the rest of the year. There will be a total of 9.5M 360s sold in the US by the end of this year.

(I'm really interested in seeing how many additional systems Halo 3 sells. If the pre-sales have been a strong and reports indicate, MS may have a greater problem on its hands. How many people are going to pre-purchase a game and not already own the system? So sales of about 2.89M for the remainder of the year.)

PS3 will do better slightly better than your expectations. I think there are a lot more 60GB systems than even Sony cares to admit to having on hand. I think they'll be able to get through most of November before the sku completely sells out. With some other promotions and another new sku, Sony should be able to sell about 2.25M PS3 and end up with 4M total in the Americas.

(I believe Sony has about 500-750K 60GB models remaining in inventory. And it would be suicide to leave only the $600 model to fight on this holiday season. So Sony needs to either drop the price on that bundle or come up with a new sku to fill the $500 space. It may be as simple as dropping the game and price. Or they may have something else up their sleeve.)

Again you keep underestimating the ps3. Only time will tell.

August-Dec 31

Wii= With supply restraints 3.5 million if they get a handle on it 5 million.

360= 3 million

PS 3 = 3.5 - 4 million.

This I can agree with ^  ^   ^Aug-jan31

wii-3.75m-6.00m

360=3.25-4.50m

ps3=3.50-5m

This is the likely scenerio, by the end of january.

I see some very optimistic Wii numbers here. Not because it will sell poorly, or that it's a bad machine, but due to the supply shortage Nintendo announced for the holiday season. I think they will do roughly 3 million units from August to the end of December. However if by some reason the "supply limited" status changes and they have plenty, I can see them pulling upwards of 4.5 million units.

Xbox 360 will have a good couple months, but will still be hampered by the RRoD issues. Also if MS does drop the price the $50 as is rumored, it will help them out as a choice for those who want a traditional 'next gen" system. (Please, no heat from this comment by the Nintendo fans. I only mean this in terms of traditional games and gameplay) In the end the 360 will end up around 3-3.25 million.

For the PS3, many of the numbers here are way way too pessimistic and assuming that Sony sells out of the 60gb PS3's and will continue the bundle system for $600. I still expect Sony to release a standalone 80gb machine at the $500 pricepoint which will encourage steady sales throughout the rest of the year. I can see a couple ways this will work out. At the worst, and with anticipated games not making to retail due to delays, or at the least coming out a month later will have a bottom end of 2.5 million units sold. However, if they do bring out a standalone 80gb system (Keep in mind the "bundle pack" is a limited time edition) at $500 or less (They could drop this down if the 360 gets too much of a sales boost from a $50 drop and Sony would go down another $50-100), sales could be in the neighborhood of 3.5-5 million units. Also throw in some big past sellers that will make it to the PS3 for the first time and it could really ignite demand and desire for the PS3.

I'm not saying that the PS3 will for sure outsell the Wii, but they could depending how supply is limited for the Wii as well as some other factors that we just don't know yet.

it's mean PS3 in black hole (( i'am sad...

$600 does not present much of a barrier at Christmas

Reallly???????? >_