I agree mostly with theSource.
PS3 might have some positive buzz with Warhawk, Heavenly Sword (People love button mashers, as much as a Nintendo Motion fanboy as I am I have played through that demo 100 times), and Haze. Also there are a lot of second tier releases that are going to be all over TV (ads) for PS3. This number could go above 2 mil.
360 has the largest std.dev. if you ask me. So many factors, $50 price drop (enough), hardware Problems vs. Halo 3, Big New IPs (Bioshock and Mass Effect), and Possibility of Software Price Drops.
We don't consider that otfen enough into long term predictions, but I think that the PS2 success had a lot to do with the number of $20-30 games available by holiday '01. Families and Young Adults take that heavily into consideration. This may have a big effect on 360, and to a lesser extent Wii. 360 has the most to gain or lose.
Wii has the most to gain, if they can get shipments up. If Nintendo cares about market share (which they do but not at the expence of loss), they NEED to get as many Wii's into homes this year (they need to sell 5-6 mil in this time to do it IMO) as possible.
If they want to eliminate any threat all the way through Holiday 08 they can if they reach 18-20 million at the end of 07. Then Sony and MS would have to extend their life cycles, and hold out for major hardware revisions and price cuts for when HD TV's become more prevelant and prices are more mass market, until then they will cater to a niche market.
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.
