this is right up there with JL predicting 500 million Wii sold LT.

apparently people need to a reality check

Why do you complain so much when people make a bad/very unlikely prediction? Tell them why they are wrong, or stop posting negative crap about people.

PS: I do realize the irony in that post.

As for the actual prediction.

I believe the Wii demand might be that high, but if you face the facts, there is simply not enough supply.

Nintendo has said that they expect over 52M shipped by end of March 09. We can be pretty certain they won't have over 55M (that is incredibly unrealistic).

Now, there is very little change that Wii will not sell less than 6M in Q1 2009 (they will fly in a few extra million for christmas, so not the full 7.2M they make will be sold. Also, stockpiling). So, I believe that the realistic prediction for Wii is 45-46M, and the absolute max is 48M. This means that we will likely be looking at ~ 7M for December, and as a max 10M (which is unlikely). That is, of course 7-10M for 5 weeks December.

So we can assume that the peak week will probably not beat 3M, as that would leave too little for the other weeks.

So, my good sir, what the fuck are you doing on this site, then?

Sorry, but 1 million Wii's a day is just ridiculous. I think Black Friday and Christmas are the only weeks that the Wii will see over 1 million consoles sold in a week. Christmas MIGHT have a (very) small chance of crossing 2 million, but five million consoles in a week is unprecedented and extremely optimistic.

12 million Wii's in one month is, again, on the high side. The EXTREMELY high side. I would predict around 5-6 million, with a high end of 8 million.

And it's not really a good chance. You might want to mention that this is all a prediction, because I thought from the title that Nintendo had said this.

I don't think 'sales analyst' is really a compliment, looking at Pachter's "badly reviewed games flop" theory.

before that the supplies will end all thanks to Nintendo.

Even if the supplies don't end what you're saying would never happen.That could only be achieved by a PS2 when it was at its peak

At their current 2.5million/mo they will not even come close to reaching those numbers... of the 52 million they will ship out by March 7.5 of those million will be next year. Even if they fly in a bunch you are looking 46 million consoles... it will likely be around 44-45

One million in a day I just can't see that it will have a couple of weeks where it sells over a million in a week but nowhere near to seven million in a week.

that's three months worth of production...

 I don't know about that but i saw a lot of wii sold this black friday at the wal mart I went to.