ok i found one

October 29, 2007 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock

 Edit: above I said firm release date. not generic like 'january 2008'.

Madden wont be.
Perhaps UT3

I am guessing UT3, Haze, GT5, GTA4 (whenever it comes out).

Games that I don't think will make it to a million:
Madden
NFS: Pro Street
HSG5 (Only popular in Japan, and I expect Japanese sales to drop quickly)

I'd be surprised at UT3 doing all that well. Particularily from a very PC oriented franchise, those who have been supporting the game may look, and then pee on the PS3 for being a console. All the fun and complex control scheme of UT without the ability to bind or fast swap, and few keys to map to!

Guitar Hero will sell like 50 cent/gram cocaine, if it doesn't require a new guitar. If it's a 140 dollar investment... why wouldn't they just buy the PS2 version for the 60 bucks and not have... well, possibility of paying 5 bucks for 3 tracks? A blue Ray disc clearly being used to capacity yet still costing an additional 10 dollars? What a bargain! I'd be a sucker not to buy.

My first vote is Heavenly Sword. It will make it so long as the demo doesn't show the entirity of gameplay and it does elaborate and become more fun. If not, it'll be close.

Ratchet and Clank will be close, but not passing 3 million worldwide on a console with a 30x install base to the PS3 does not bring my hopes up.

Lair has the review issue, and then I wonder if the PS3 players will crow about the amazing motion control will feel stupid for just a moment.

My second vote is Madden. Most PS3's are sold in America, most Madden are sold in America, and though it seems like a casual game (People play it and not much else. That's my definition of casual. Suck it Trebeck), fans are dedicated and Sports games don't get much improvement aside from graphics, so if it's done beautifully, you will make many a football fan erect. Sales may be limited by next years graphic and roster update, but if this doesn't make it, so long as the PS3 keeps growing, that one will.

First million seller from a 3rd party - Guitar Hero III.

Considering we are talking 3RD Party...

I would say Guitar Hero 3, but Rock Band might split up the user base.

UT3 will have most of its sales from PC gamers.
Haze... maybe, but it IS coming to the 360.
CoD4... 360 will take away sales.
Assasins Creed... Same as above.

As for the NEXT, I would go with Guitar Hero 3.

My crystal ball doesnt see any just yet.

I have my doubts about Guitar Hero 3 becoming the PS3's first 3rd party million seller.

Call me crazy, but I'd say MGS4.

There will never be one. The PS3 phails that hard.

In a way, I'm not kidding. The system is doing so bad right now and has almost no hope of coming back as they will miss Christmas 07 with nothing, and no titles that someone else allready has.

In all honesty, MGS4. I might be wrong, but things are looking that way.

Madden won't get close ...

Even though it is a popular series I don't think that a system has had it break a Million without having 10 Million users in North America.

I'm betting you won't see a Million selling third party PS3 title until Grand Theft Auto 4.