bdbdbd, 1st of all thank you for having an intellegent conversation with me. The Sony issue is interesting in that they really misread the population. The PS2 was a run away success, and a great template and they were certainly banking on the PS3 doing the same. The fundamental problem was trying to fight two fronts at the same time ('next gen' gaming and HD video) and thus making hardware rediculously expensive for the masses. If they took the MS route, kept the same hardware but removed the blu-ray drive, they would have released 1 year earlier, and would likely have a large part of the Wii marketshare as the console would be almost the same price as the Wii. The whole gaming landscape potentialy would have been fundamantally different. They may have won the HD battle in having Blu-ray emerge as the format of choice mainly because of the PS3, but I personnally feel that in this Ipod generation, downloads will be the HD format of choice, not physical media (i really belive that that is why Toshiba backed down, they have far greater resources than Sony, and could have survived as a niche product just like sony's own propriotory products). The only thing negative that I have to say about Sony is that they are 'arrogant' in that they really try and push their propriotery formats (from beta, to UMD, to the memory sticks etc.). So perhaps in many ways, the slow adoption of the PS3 relative to the Wii has actually changed the gaming landscape for consoles this generation, and for that I fault Sony.
With regards to #3. what difference does 1st part of 3rd party exclusives make for Wii' you are absolutely correct and I stand corrected. My thoughts on this though, is that I really 'doubt' that any third party developer will be able to make a steller AAA game excluvely for the Wii. The reason is why would they make it exclusive? If Ubisoft made Assassin Creed for the Wii last year, it makes no sense for it not to be on Xbox/PS3. (ie lets say MarioKart was made by someone else. Why would they restrict MarioKart to the Wii? They would be more inclined to make MarioKart 'HD' for the PS3/Xbox and then make the port to the Wii). I do not know the costs for video game design, but if 'they' felt that it was cheaper to develop exclusively for the Wii and forgo HD gaming all together then unfortunately for gamers, the future of gaming is going to be poor (I need my HD gaming, 3-D lighting effects, textures, 5.1, 7.1 sound, on-line interactivity, and the many benifits of the newer game engines provides). I loaded an old need for speed game (Undergorund), it was not as enjoyable (though I loved it at the original time). I played starfox N64 recently, it was fun for a few minutes, but it was like playing pacman again, fun for a few minues thats it, and I would not spend $49 or $59 for it today, I would spend $5 to have it on Xbox live Arcade with surround sound and HD graphics though).
With regards to new IP's, absolutely, the best selling console will be the best place to sell, and in previous generations when hardware was equivalent that arguement holds. The contradiction to that staement will be that today, I need to be 'wowed' by a new IP in order to get my entertainment dollars. Gears of War is such a game that was 'Wow'. Halo went it 1st came out was a 'wow'. Bioshock was a 'Wow', Assassin's Creed was a Wow, even though CoD4 was a sequal, it was a 'Wow'. The sequals are just milking the franchise for more money Halo 2,3, Gears2, CoD:WaW, Assassin Creed 2 latter next year, etc). Halo Wars will be a million seller because of the halo name. I bet there will be many, many people that will buy the game, not realizing that it is a RTS, not FPS. Now when I say 'Wow' I do not mean just graphically. Its the complete package of gamplay experience. This complete package can only be had on HD consoles. This is the reason why the there are many million sellers on the Xbox (more than the Wii). The 3rd party developers get it and know how to make great games. For whatever reason they cannot do it on the Wii, and when every developer has the same issue, the problem is the harware or the demographics of the userbase are totally different.
Perhaps I am being a little harsh on the Wii, but my perspective is from being a bit of a hard core gamer. I totally accept that great games do not have to be great graphics. I bet little Big planet would actually sell well on the wii. However it iis a much better game becuase it is on teh PS3 because of what the Ps3 hardware offers. StarCraft was and is a great game still. However, do not make a new game that is like Starcraft quality in this generation and expect to sell well. Why would I play that game when I can still play starcraft? You have to do better than starcraft, much better if new IP, but I wil buy starcraft2 as a blind buy because of the name. I trust that Blizzard will not let me down (have they ever made a flop?). Same thing on the Wii. Mario games almost get blind buys, because it is Mario, not because they are great games (don't tell me that Mario and Sonic at the Olympic games is a AAA title) but what chance does a new IP have when competing against Mario.