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bdbdbd said:

As for new IP:s, the best-selling platform is always the best for new IP:s, since the big userbase is most likely to purchase the game. As for Wii and new IP:s, the cheapest platform is always the least risky. Nintendo have successfully introduced new IP on Wii, there's Conduit and Madworld coming and NMH was a success as a best-selling Suda game ever, Zack&Wiki i believe had quite a legs. When on the HD side, we have games like Haze and Too Human, which definately underperformed.

 

This is actually an excellent point. It's not like 3rd parties or new IPs do BADLY on the Wii, they just don't do as well as the overinflated expectations that people have based on the hardware numbers.

the projected software sales are overinflated for quite a few reasons:

1) 3rd parties (and HD fanboys) seem to think that because Wii supporters don't require high end graphics, that they don't expect high end gameplay and features as well. Thus many ports of quality games suffer having important features cut from the game.
In reality, even the Wii consumer base that thinks Wii Play is awesome notices when controls aren't good, or when the a game that is SUPPOSED to have a good storyline ends up not coming through on that end.

2) 3rd parties (and HD fanboys) seem to think that just because the Wii has a larger footprint, that the entire footprint is actually their marketable audience, and if they don't match the sales of Wii Sports, then a game is a flop.
Wii is actually the perfect platform for Niche games, provided 3rd parties recognize that they are not going to be marketing towards the entire Wii audience. While the 360 and PS3 generally have a specific type of gamer that makes up 90% of their base, the Wii has an INCREDIBLY diverse consumer base that means that just about ANY niche game has a shot at getting a somewhat decent following.
The lower development costs mean that companies are not out on the streets if the game flops, and the legs that Wii games tend to have can mean that even if sales are lackluster, they can continue doing well for a long time. Of course, that's provided they do a good enough job for people to want to see more from them, and not completely jade their potential audience.

3) 3rd parties (and HD fanboys) seem to think that the audience has to be there for the game to be marketable. 3rd party developers keep on following trends, rather than setting them. When Nintendo came out with Wii sports and Wii play, there was a veritable glut of hastily slapped together knockoffs as companies tried to cash in, but consumers could already get what they wanted with Wii Sports and Wii Play, so why should they also get a crappy knockoff? Yet 3rd parties are also doing this with other games as well. They aren't coming out with FPS or RTS or PC games that have the potential to do well, because they haven't yet seen those type of games do well.
In reality, people want those games, but since no company has put those games out on the Wii (at least not in the quality that people expect), consumers that want those types of games have no reason to get a Wii, and thus are not going to be there to buy the game when it comes out. Once companies actually start pumping those types of games, it will draw the consumers in and there will be no competition for the first company to hit with a good quality game. Every company that tries to cash in on that genre afterwards will have to compete with the first one who broke into it.



Seppukuties is like LBP Lite, on crack. Play it already!

Currently wrapped up in: Half Life, Portal, and User Created Source Mods
Games I want: (Wii)Mario Kart, Okami, Bully, Conduit,  No More Heroes 2 (GC) Eternal Darkness, Killer7, (PS2) Ico, God of War1&2, Legacy of Kain: SR2&Defiance


My Prediction: Wii will be achieve 48% market share by the end of 2008, and will achieve 50% by the end of june of 09. Prediction Failed.

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