Place your bets - when will Wii pass 360?

johnsobas

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johnsobas on 31 July 2007

august 19th is almost guaranteed.

currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

taternuts444

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taternuts444 on 31 July 2007

well sales wise i'd say around Sep. 1, but honestly the Wii has probably already passed the 360 in terms of systems in use, with the 360's failure rate their are probably only around 8 million or so in use, so the Wii has already passed them in that respect.

WiteoutKing

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WiteoutKing on 01 August 2007

OriGin said:

Dolla Dolla said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=4666

August 19th

PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Galaki

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Galaki on 01 August 2007

I think August 19 is most likely, might even be 1 week before that.

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ckmlb on 01 August 2007

August 19th

Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

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KruzeS on 01 August 2007

ckmlb said:
August 19th

Good to see you updating your prediction! Â

Reality has a Nintendo bias.

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z64dan on 01 August 2007

Hey ioi, I had a thread (http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=4666) about a week ago on the Nintendo forum covering this question. Here's the answers people gave me.

Week ending:
August 5 - cebrian
August 12 - RolStoppable, Game_Boy, OriGin, Wolfenstein, whatever, celine, Neos
August 19 - tiachopvutru, WhiteoutKing, pobladofx, koffieboon, Nairu, libellule, everdom, KruzeS, Daileon, Danny355, shams, densiyrex, ismael, Dolla Dolla, Starless, DarkKnight_DS, sexybeast, Sam, darkjonnyx
August 26 - ceres, windowview, thetonnestar, Machina-AX, rendo, ckmlb, tabsina, Sri Lumpa, tombi123, Bodhesatva, a.l.e.x59, robjoh, I Like Bacon
September 2 - steven787, Desroko, Delta XIII
September 9 - z64dan, Heidir, ChichiriMuyo
September 16 - homelesscarl

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Sqrl on 01 August 2007

Hmm, just a suggestion but maybe to make these more interesting we should establish rules as to when the exact date is. What I mean is, that since there are only like 4 or 5 valid weeks to guess everyone sort of lumps into these spots and it is pretty uninteresting....to me at least.

If I might be so bold...

Each person guesses the an exact date, not a week ending date.
Divide the results of a given week by 7 to get each day's sales.
Guesses would be inclusive of sales on the date guessed.
Perhaps have people guess an "over by" as a tie breaker.

Just a thought, could be fun...but then again it could get tedious . I'm sure someone can make far more interesting rules if they put their mind to it, but I just figured since we do all this guessing why not track it and see how close we are getting.

As for my guess for the rules as they stand, I will go with the week ending Aug 11th/12th, I suspect I will be off by a week on the early side but I am going for the riskier choice.