I find it hard to believe that they couldn't forcast demand despite its performance in Japan. This isn't exactly a complex piece of electronics and likely could be produced in the tens of millions if needed by factories in Asia. I really think if there hadn't of been a 360 price drop Nintendo would have pulled the same trick with the Wii.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/fils-aime-admits-wii-fit-supply-will-fall-short-this-christmas
Fils-Aime admits Wii Fit supply will "fall short" this Christmas
Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime has said that there will not be enough supply of the Wii Fit peripheral to meet demand this Christmas.
"With Wii hardware, I think we've got a good shot at meeting demand during the holidays," Fils-Aime told Forbes. "With Wii Fit, I know we'll fall short."
He also said that he doesn't think a number of third-party Nintendo developers fully understand the potential of the Wii, leaving them unable to find success with their products.
(more at the link)