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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analysis: First week CoD WaW Wii major flop, Medal of Honor breaks 500k

I don't understand what a lot of the controversy is in this thread. Wii games have opened poorly before... why so much on this one. Carnival Games opened to less than 40,000 and is over 2 million. Mario and Sonic at the Olympics started at 100,000 first week and is over 5 million. Wii Play started at 480,000 and is over 16 million now. Lego Star Wars opened to 70k and is over 1.5 million now. So all of a sudden COD5 on Wii opening to 60k is a bad thing.

Point is Wii games that aren't the big hyped Nintendo franchises struggle in their first week. Why? Because the base is their to buy big Nintendo games not big 3rd party games. Or even the weaker of the Ninty franchises. They want their Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Animal Crossing. But the base is so huge that down the line a lot of these titles, especially the mainstream brands, take off on the Wii. Look at the Maddens, Tiger Woods, FIFA, Need for Speed Prostreet, Cooking Mama, ect. All these big mainstream brands started off terribly but they persisted because the mainstream base on the Wii. What's to say COD5 is any different.

I said in my first post that it was hard to judge the hype of this game not by how much it'll sell total but by how much it'll sell in its first week. I guess in the 100k-200k range but that was off the mark. But 60k opening week is traditional for big brands on Wii and usually they don't fade away. THEY COULD but usually they don't. Hell it's probably best the game did follow trends because if it didn't who knows what it would sell.

IN the other posts I made I said although the first week is disappointing I can never tell with Wii games until a few weeks sometimes MONTHS after whether or not it'll sell well. Take Game Part... if you would have thrown that away after the first 2 weeks as a flop you'd have been washing your mouth out with soap a year later when it went platinum. I'll do the same with COD5 on Wii and if after the holidays it's in a similar situation as it is now then yea we can discuss to every end we want about how Wii multi plat games don't sell. But ya got to give it a chance. Because anyone that came in here surprised at this set themselves up for disappointment from the beginning.

Stop the drama and stop the falsehoods. Trends pointed to this happening so let's just see where it goes from here. And if it doesn't' do what the others do I"LL BE THE FIRST to point it out... trust me... I say it all the time in the individual game's page. Yea it's not going to sell anywhere near what the PS3 and 360 versions sold, even despite my LT predictions, but should we ever expect weaker games on a system that the brand isn't tied to, to do amazing.



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Zucas said:
I don't understand what a lot of the controversy is in this thread. Wii games have opened poorly before... why so much on this one. Carnival Games opened to less than 40,000 and is over 2 million. Mario and Sonic at the Olympics started at 100,000 first week and is over 5 million. Wii Play started at 480,000 and is over 16 million now. Lego Star Wars opened to 70k and is over 1.5 million now. So all of a sudden COD5 on Wii opening to 60k is a bad thing.

Point is Wii games that aren't the big hyped Nintendo franchises struggle in their first week. Why? Because the base is their to buy big Nintendo games not big 3rd party games. Or even the weaker of the Ninty franchises. They want their Mario, Zelda, Metroid, and Animal Crossing. But the base is so huge that down the line a lot of these titles, especially the mainstream brands, take off on the Wii. Look at the Maddens, Tiger Woods, FIFA, Need for Speed Prostreet, Cooking Mama, ect. All these big mainstream brands started off terribly but they persisted because the mainstream base on the Wii. What's to say COD5 is any different.

I said in my first post that it was hard to judge the hype of this game not by how much it'll sell total but by how much it'll sell in its first week. I guess in the 100k-200k range but that was off the mark. But 60k opening week is traditional for big brands on Wii and usually they don't fade away. THEY COULD but usually they don't. Hell it's probably best the game did follow trends because if it didn't who knows what it would sell.

IN the other posts I made I said although the first week is disappointing I can never tell with Wii games until a few weeks sometimes MONTHS after whether or not it'll sell well. Take Game Part... if you would have thrown that away after the first 2 weeks as a flop you'd have been washing your mouth out with soap a year later when it went platinum. I'll do the same with COD5 on Wii and if after the holidays it's in a similar situation as it is now then yea we can discuss to every end we want about how Wii multi plat games don't sell. But ya got to give it a chance. Because anyone that came in here surprised at this set themselves up for disappointment from the beginning.

Stop the drama and stop the falsehoods. Trends pointed to this happening so let's just see where it goes from here. And if it doesn't' do what the others do I"LL BE THE FIRST to point it out... trust me... I say it all the time in the individual game's page. Yea it's not going to sell anywhere near what the PS3 and 360 versions sold, even despite my LT predictions, but should we ever expect weaker games on a system that the brand isn't tied to, to do amazing.

Excellent post. I must admit I threw the word "flop" around in the OP too losely. I was just majorly disappointed in its first week sales, and it should have done better.

This game will have legs, but despite that, I doubt it will sell well. This game has to do better than COD3 (which sold 750k), but that looks to be extremely unlikely. I think we're looking at around 500k lifetime for this game, which isn't terrible, but considering the quality of the product, should be much, much more.



Well I think too often now Wii multiplatform games just aren't seen as the good version. And every now and then a good version comes out but the damage has been done. I think COD on Wii had that against it. Not to mention the lack of brand association with COD and Nintendo. Just never there. I think those are 2 factors against it's opening week and probably it's sales in the long run.

But I've said many times before I never doubt mainstream games on Wii in the long run because they've surprised me too often. So I'll give this an end of the year deadline. I still think it can get over the gold mark but I'm less optimistic every day.



Nice to know Wii owners have taste. Now only if MoH had negative sales.



Bet - "PES 2009 (PS3) will sell (closer to) 150k first week in Japan" - Pooperscopper
"It will sell closer to 125k" - Me I agree.
ME = OWNED :(

End of '09 Predictions:

Wii: 78 million
X360: 35 million
PS3: 27 million

Zucas great post and what you say it true. The only problem I had with first day sales of cod: waw is that the game was at E3. almost double the amount of people own the Wii then ps360. I know that most are older people then younger, so they might not buy the game. So I would think that the game would sell more first day since it was at the biggest game expo in the USA. When E3 was over people on this forum complained that Wii is not getting any hardcore games, but looked over cod: waw. that is the only thing that bothered me



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UPDATE: It seems the game has legs! In the second week, 18.000 new accounts popped up (1st week was 17.000). Ofcourse, some people who made an account already bought the game on the first week, I'm estimating that'd be 25%-35%. Since I estimated the sales a tad too low in the OP, I'm using a 3.5 multiplier instead of 3.

My prediction for second week sales: 40k-53k. I'm gonna go with 46k. That would be a drop of only 24.6%.



hmm so if your prediction is correct....

hopefully the game should have good legs... but again lets wait a little longer say 5 weeks and see where it is. Hopefully it should get a boost on Black Friday and week before christmas aswell



Wii Friendcode - 6327 2612 7683 5724

feel free to add me whenever (just PM me to let me know)

Well, I haven't bought it yet (call of duty) but I intend on doing so very soon.



Wichdog69

Chrizum said:
UPDATE: It seems the game has legs! In the second week, 18.000 new accounts popped up (1st week was 17.000). Ofcourse, some people who made an account already bought the game on the first week, I'm estimating that'd be 25%-35%. Since I estimated the sales a tad too low in the OP, I'm using a 3.5 multiplier instead of 3.

My prediction for second week sales: 40k-53k. I'm gonna go with 46k. That would be a drop of only 24.6%.

 

 more update, the total online accounts was already in 35,000. YES 35,000 from 4,000 in 3 days to 17,000 in its first week to 35,000 this weekend. 

Im posting this because someone bumped this thread and Im tired of these topics so Im posting this now, but since the posts here are optimistic my mood of posting was changed. BTW you should go to gamefaqs or wiiunite for updates.

 



end of core gaming days prediction:

 

E3 2006-The beginning of the end. Wii introduced

 

E3 2008- Armageddon. Wii motion plus introduced. Wii Music. Reggie says Animal crossing was a core game. Massive disappointment. many Wii core gamers selling their Wii.

 

E3 2010- Tape runs out

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/march2009/ICG_Tape_runs_out.jpg

I'm enjoying seeing the online community grow. It was up to just under 41,000 this evening. If it grows at this rate for a few weeks we will all be happy.

If it can make it to 50,000 by Friday I will do a little jig.

I want sales damn it! And while you're at it people, get Shaun White and Skate It as well.



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