Deal!

It's very, and I mean very, unlikely that GT5 is going to hit some sort of insane userbase. You can argue the GTAIV attach rates, but I can assure you that as a systems' lifespan goes on and on, the attach rate will constantly drop. If Halo 4 was suddenly released this year, the attach rate would be a decent bit lower than Halo 3 - even if it sold better.

And I'm not understanding something: GTA: San Andreas sold 16 million units on the Playstation 2. GTAIV sold under 5m as of today on the PS3. GT4 sold under 10m worldwide. How is GT5 going to suddenly increase sales when the last iteration didn't do as well on a vastly higher selling platform?

Well I know this is cheating, but CoD 4 and GTA IV already have.... combined

In terms of exclusives, Halo 4 wont make it out in time (I expect it as a 720 launch game), but GT 5 certainly has a chance, as I think sony are going to change their GT strategy to 1 game a gen, and then ad extra cars and add many updates to keep the game going for a few years.

GTA V also has a chance on the Xbox or PS3 if it is released in 2010, but that would rely on one of them becoming entirely dominant over the other

Terms as I understand, if GT4 sells > 4 million LTD in Others or more than 8 or 10 million (we have to decide) LTD WW then you're perma, otherwise me, correct?

GTA SA was PS2 timed exclusive, so let's say if GTA IV was 360 or PS3 timed exclusive then that would definitely be say at 8 or 9 mil on 360 right now or 6 or 7 mil on PS3, simple as that.

Isn't SA nearer 18m? Anyway, SA was the third game to launch on the PS2 (GTA game) and so obviously it had a very large user base. It was also absolutely incredible, so word of mouth gave it incredible legs. GTA IV was not so well received by players, so it hasn't had the same legs, though it will be interesting to see how it is effected by the holiday.

As for GT 4, I think it sold less because it was not too different from GT 3 and I think according to shipment figures it is just over 10m,  and so when GT 5 comes, people will want a new one for their new console, and of course the online play should help (if they actually get it right this time). If someone who got GT 3 is picking up a PS3, they are going to get 5 with their new console, because they will assume something will have changed in all those years, and course the graphics are so good an upgrade just for them is worth it

your using logic here, and we all know forums are immune to the use of logic.  good call though 

the only possible game is MGS5

on the subject of this i think next years console sales, will help determine if any games make 10 mill outside of major games already out. on both consoles we need to see growth year over year, and if my to 2012 minimum gen length stands up, there are even games we might not have heard of that can do it. to help you want to see both the 360 and ps3 get over 50 million units sold, so selling to 1/5 of the base is all that is needed

Halo 4, otherwise I don't think the PS3 or 360 will have the install base by generations end to support 10 million without a near 20% attachment ratio.