I doubt it. They would probably wait a year to get to 400$.  But you can't plan the running times of the consoles. If the sales of a given plattform drop under a certain point it is dead, or if it can not be sold with an acceptable price.

In my opinion the ps2 has a pretty good chance to survive the PS-3!It is difficult and even dangerous to connect a plattform with certain games. If necessary Epic would release Gears 3 on the Xbox360. There are a lot of factors, when to release a new plattform. I think they are planning their console now, but they will only really move if Sony moves too. Sony has the major disadvantage that they have to switch the plattform, while for Microsoft everything speaks for an upgrade. This makes everything easier.

In the current situation it wouzld be totally ridiculous to really plan a new plattform. Credits are too expensive. But you are at the perfect planning stage. Currently even AMD or Intel might be ready to deliver processor technologies.

"If necessary Epic would release Gears 3 on the Xbox360."

But the problem with that is that Microsoft would be releasing a new console without any strong launch titles and that is really what has been the downfall of so many consoles in the past. I don't think they want to release a new console without a proven IP (and again Fable hasn't proven itself to be a Halo in its prime or Gears size IP) and Gears is their strongest IP now. I predict we might hear something about the next xbox as early as this December because December 2004 was when info about the 360 started to come out.

The notion about the 360 being in too strong of a position in the market for them to release a new console in the next year or two doesn't really hold up. Because in 2005, the original xbox had already lost its gen to the PS2 (much as they announced a few months ago that they have already lost this gen to Nintendo), but the original xbox was a strong #2 in its gen much as the 360 is now; it had had huge success with Halo 2 much as it is having with Gears 2 now); it had a strong lineup planned for 2005 including the only console version of Half Life 2, Psychonauts, Stranger's Wrath, the only console version of Doom 3, and Bioware's very much anticipated rpg Jade Empire which would only strengthen its position as the number 2 console on the market.

Yet rumours started circulating about XBOX 2, and by GDC 2005, the 360 was confirmed and scheduled to ship in November of 2005 with Halo 3 being scheduled to be the game that would drive its sales. History teaches that you can predict future events from events that have happened in the past and the 360 is following the exact same path that the original xbox was on in late 2004.

Now it could be that Microsoft will wait one year to release their next console at the $400.00 price tag which would put it releasing in 2010 alongside Gears 3. But, then again, they could want to bring out the next xbox next year at the $500.00 price. Give the console some time to get some steam on its own with some new games as the 360 had Dead Rising and Prey prior to Gears and Halo 3, thus generating an all ready sizeable owner base before the release of its big two; then when Halo 4 and Gears 3 come out give the system two solid AAA titles and a price cut at the same time.

"One game? What is this abomination of a fanboy post. Lets just say PS3 and 360 have both delivered quality exclusive and multiplat AAA titles. Stop being such fanboys. If you look at the library of games over the months, Ps3 and 360 are pretty much neck and neck, you can't go wrong with either this year."

Actually, I would alter that statement that I made earlier a bit no to say that no exclusive game on the 360 this year that was thought of as being a guaranteed AAA prior to its release lived up to its expectations.

I just went to check GameRankings data to see what it would say on the matter and this is what I found.

Gears of War 2. Its Gamerankings' score is lower than that of Gears of War I.
Fable II's GameRankings' score is higher than score of the two prior games on the original xbox but when many were saying it was going to be the best WRPG of all time, I find that its GameRankings score is only an 88.9, and with most of its review scores being in, I doubt that it will ever be at a 90 again.

Too Human once thought by many to have the potential to be the greatest action rpg game of all time. Yet, it was a total failure at that task. Only bringing in a Game Rankings' score of 68.920 when all was said and done.

Ninja Gaiden II a succesor to a game that had a Game Rankings' score of 94.025. The 360 version only came in at a 82.024 which is also a lower score than the remake of the original game had on the PS3. Sigma's Game Rankings' score is 86.569.

Unreal Tournament III made by the same company that makes the 360's flagship title surely the best console version would turn out to be 360 one. Yet much like Sigma and Ninja Gaiden II, the PS3 version of UT III turns out to be the superior one. PS3 UT III GR score = 86.564. 360 UT III = 82.405.

Lastly, Microsoft put a lot of effort into trying to get great jrpgs on the 360 this time out. But at the end of the day the scores for them indicate that none of them is in anyway a great game. Tales of Vesperia = 83.750, Lost Odyssey = 79.118, and Infinite Undiscovery = 68.758.

The only facet of the 360's game development that could be said to have matched or exceeded expectations this year was its Live Arcade games like Braid, Castle Crashers, and Geometry Wars 2.

On the other hand, the PS3 met or exceeded expectations with all of its games this year. Little Big Planet has the highest Game Rankings score of any exclusive on any console this year.

GTA IV PS3 is considered to be a better game than the 360 version, and it has the highest Game Rankings score of any game during this console generation.

Metal Gear Solid received a 10 from IGN and Famitsu and in his review of Metal Gear Solid 4 in Dave Halverson's Play Magazine, Nick Des Barres said that MGS4 was the best game that has been released on any console in this console generation. Some of the publications that are less biased than Play or IGN did their best to bring MGS 4's final score down a bit farther than it should have been; but still the fact remains that MGS 4 shows very well the fact that adventure and story driven games work much better on the PS3 than on the 360, so it can very definitely be said that MGS 4 accomplished its mission. And as far as being a game from the Land from the Rising Sun that was supposed to give its console pops during the Summer months, MGS4 certainly obliterated NG II at that task.

Sega's Valkyrie Chronicles which is exclusively on the PS3 with little to no expectations placed upon it proved to be the years best Japanese role playing game and the best Japanese Role Playing game released on any console (not counting handhelds) during this generation. It even received a higher review score at IGN than did the 360's Fable II and showed that as Play Magazine said "that the heart that Sega showed during the Dreamcast era still beats in their Japanese HQ."

The only PS3 game that might not have met some people's expectations in 2008 was Resistance 2. Although a strong case can be made for the fact that it did meet and exceed expectations. It received a 95 score from IGN as high as their score of Gears 2, but again most pro 360 publications worked to lower Resistance 2's scores, whether intentionally or unintentionally, so that its Game Rankings score may not be a measure of the game's true worth even though it still scores higher than Resistance I unlike Gears 2 which as pointed out above has a lower Game Rankings' score than Gears I.

As far as overall quality of its games and in meeting the expectations placed upon its games, the PS3 did a much better job of delivering what was promised in 2008 than did the 360.

"History teaches that you can predict future events from events that have happened in the past and the 360 is following the exact same path that the original xbox was on in late 2004."

If that statement held any weight Nintendo would be in dead last and the PS3 would be kicking major ass right now.  The PS3 is struggling to stay afloat and M$ knows this, it takes a very large amount of money to create a gaming system.  M$ will want to recoup as much as they possibly can so the 360 will be around a lot longer than you seem to think.  The only way this would possibly happen is if by a miracle Sony started outselling it by a 2:1 ratio for a long time.

M$ will base the date they launch a new system on economics, not when a 2nd party game studio decides.

By the way I am not a Sony Basher, I happen to love the system and I own one.  I just don't see where you keep thinking its position is going to instantly change (forcing M$'s hand).  I have come to terms with it and maybe after some time you will as well.

"M$ will base the date they launch a new system on economics, not when a 2nd party game studio decides."

Well, what game do you think would entice people to buy a new console from Microsoft more than Gears 3? I certainly don't think they can bank on Lips or You're in the Movies 2 for that task.

Your grasping at straw men mate.  I am sure M$ can come up with a decent lineup, matter of fact I would be certain that the longer they go in between systems the more time they will have to pollish its starting lineup.

"Your grasping at straw men mate. I am sure M$ can come up with a decent lineup, matter of fact I would be certain that the longer they go in between systems the more time they will have to pollish its starting lineup."

How are they going to do that when they have only three games coming out next year? Halo: Recon a budget game; Halo: Wars, and Alan Wake? None of which will be very big.

In response to the OP, let's be serious... Sony had been consistently outselling the XBOX 360 worldwide this year and, while the 360 was doing good sales, it needed a price-cut to trump Sony in sales. Did this hinder the PS3's sales? No, it's still selling significantly better than it was last year, even with the $200 base price difference between arcade and 80GB units. What has this done for the 360? Wedged itself into a position where now to maintain interest they're going to have to work harder on the gaming front as they can't/won't sacrifice another price drop for a long time, whereas Sony has plenty of room to move consoles by lowering its price AND third-party companies (EVEN VALVE) are starting to show confidence and interest in the PS3. Sony flopped this year? Strong system sales and software sales beg to differ. Nevertheless, congratulations on your success, Microsoft. The gap is closing, slowly but surely.

Do you seriously think thats all that is coming out?  Microsoft have proven they can sell software, that has never been its problem.

M$ seem to always keep their cards close to their chest, we don't know what they are going to through at us next year.  Some M$ higherups have already said we are in for some surprises.  One thing this accomplishes is the simple fact we don't have these huge expectations 2 or 3 years out that can never be realised.  See LBP and R2 for example and possibly KZ2.

At $30 Halo Recon will sell a hell of alot. Halo Wars will probably sell 3-4 M and I'm not so sure about Alan Wake at the moment until I see more builds and get more info. PGR is also coming out and Splinter Cell is as well.