The majority of Blu Ray DVD's that have been purchased have been purchased by people who had PS3's which outsold stand alone Blu Ray players. As you remember the PS3's existence was to save Blu Rays which were not needed just like HD DVD. The 360's highest selling gamd sold at half as many units as the consoles sold itself (When it was at 16 M). By the end of the year it might sell 10 M (who knows?). Sony cannot lay claim to this, where as their highest selling game sells 1/4 of it's installed base.

"They have made significant inroads in Japan because of the jrpgs; however, once FFXIII comes out in Japan, most studios will shift there jrpg development plans to the PS3 which will leave the 360 without new games in the genre that almost allowed them to gain a foothold there. And the success of GTA IV PS3 over that of GTA IV 360 shows that Japanese gamers still prefer their Western games on Japanese consoles."


Why would any developer switch developing for a console strictly on the bases of how well an opponents game does? Seriously do you have a crystal ball? It is much easier to develop games on the 360 and a lot of these jrpgs are done on the cheap so I don't see alot of them switching over "just because".

"Yes. but what game is going to be coming to the 360 next December? After Gears 2, Microsoft is going to be trimming down 360 development and beginning to work on their next machine which I predict will be announced at GDC in March 2009."

Microsoft keeps their gaming lineups pretty close to their chest. So I really don't know. But so far they have had a better lineup each Christmas (IMO) and I don't see why next year will be any different. Saying the PS3 will have a better Lineup next Christmas just because you want it to does not make it so.

Again, I am not bashing the system or you for that matter. I just simply think it is not performing like it should have.

Mario isn't a niche platformer. LBP is a niche platformer.

I said it was a prediction. But it is based on following past trends. Microsoft released Halo 2 in November 2004, then after a successful run, they released the 360 in November 2009, and they used their most popular title as a flagship title to do so. They will want to do the same thing with the next xbox with Gears 3 being its standout title. So, it really comes down until how long they want to wait until they debut Gears 3. They waited 3 years between Halo 2 and Halo 3, so they could wait as long as 2011 to release a new console along with Gears 3. But that might be too long for Epic to wait. They might want to get the next game out sooner than 3 years from now, so since there has been only two years between Gears I and 2, then 2010 could also be the year of the release of the next XBOX.

Now, if MS wants to get a little head start on the competition which was a boon to them this gen and if they want to try to develop another franchise in addition to Halo and Gears, then might push harder to have their next console ready in November of 2009, and this would follow the precedent set by the four year interval between the 360 and the original XBOX.

Either way, I think there will be concrete information released by MS at the next GDC (which seems to be the conference where Microsoft likes to make their major announcements), Gears of War 3 will be the game they use to sell their next console, and the two will release fairly close together.

There have been many little pieces of information released this year that makes it look as if Microsoft has been considering different facets of the development of their new console. Such as leaked rumours about what kind of storage medium it was going to support, etc.

I found several links that said Microsoft was working on plans for the next xbox as early as January 2008, so even though I would think a 2009 release would be too early, if they were working on it even conceptually that long ago then it could be next year.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3165235
http://www.stuffwelike.com/stuffwelike/2008/08/25/gearbox-working-on-halo-4-for-next-xbox/
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/9704/139/

well if by flop you mean outselling 360 by 1.3 million in 08 then yes ;).

I see. However, MS has already taken the steps to make sure the 360 does not have only a four year lifespan like the Xbox. They are on their way to accomplishing their goal competitive-wise, which is outsell the PS3 (not a guarantee come two years but they are leading now nevertheless).

I also have an interview from Electronic Gaming Monthly in issue #200 with Peter Moore. He mentioned that console creators are constantly working on new ways to improve technology. He then stated that they would probably come back in a year to start again. This was said in late 2005 so I suppose they could have been working on the next console since late '06/early '07. That doesn't mean they will release it anytime soon. Sony announced the Cell in 2001 but released the PS3 5 years later. Besides, I don't think MS wants to rush this console out the door, we've seen what hardware problems may pop up (MS started on it in early 2003, around 2.5 years before releasing it. I'm guessing they'll give the devs a little longer to make it this time around).

They may give some details about it, but they will not release their next console any earlier than late 2010. And I'm guessing you meant to say they released the 360 in November 2005, not 2009. Damn typos...

It can beat the 360 in sales for the year, but they are still down. The end of 4th quarter will make or break 2008 in all reality. The total sales and gap are an issue. It's also an issue of the total sales of the games that counts this year.

Blu-ray is a nice add-on for some people. For the ones I know who have blu-ray movies and ps3's, the way it works is this: they bought the ps3 to play games but since it can play HD movies as well, why watch DVD when you have your whole HD set up ready to go and can afford $5 extra? But I still do't think the group who bought the ps3 just to watch movies are a relevant constituency.

In a way, it's actually good for sony that they did save the blu-ray and now blu-ray players are picking up the slack.

Bull.  If that were the case Sony wouldn't have marketed the heck out of it.

 1. Thats only in America where the install base of PS3 is 6.33 Million, not the entire 16.71 Million. So about 1 in 20 people American PS3 owners bought it week 1. Thats not toooo bad.

2. It releases in Europe end of Novmeber which should be 400,000 (my estimate) sales with an 8 million userbase.

3. So if my estimate is anywhere near what actually happens, 700,000 would be huge for 1 week. A game doesn't have to sell 1 million to be a success first week.