I don't know if it can ever reach $200. With blu-ray, cell, and mandatory hard drive it's a long road to get to $200. If it ever does, it will be too late and no longer be a factor in the console race anymore.

The problem with this prediction is basically how long it is likely to be when this actually happens and the market conditions that will likely exist then.

Most comments here reflect what they believe would happen if the PS3 suddenly became that price today.

Also it is often cited how ineffectual the latest price cut was for the 360. What this shows is lack of understanding of what Microsoft are doing. The marketing machine is only now swinging into action and the last pieces of the jigsaw being laid.

This price cut is for the holiday season, it is for the AAA titles and it is for the interface revamp. Next week or the soon after the beast will swing into action banging on about its new interface its new price and its latest system shifter. Only then when the last mince pie is gobbled up by our little chubby friend will we then be in a position to declare it unsuccessful.

Yeah, nothing happened at all except for the fact that it started steadily outselling the PS3 again.  :)

The big impact is going to be this holiday season.  It's not the dorks like us that drive these big numbers, it's the parents out shopping for Xmas presents.  This year, especially because of a struggling economy and no PS3 price cut in sight, anyone not shopping for a Wii is probably going to really pay attention to the 360's $199 Arcade model.

I hate to disagree with you here. but lets look at the other side of the argument before dropping the final words on it.

The only consoles that sold for more than 200$:

short amount of time over 200$:  snes - less than one year at 210$ dreamcast - 225 in japan for 6 months ps1:199 14 months after launch. ps2: just about 1 year and a half at 300$, then 199 (And sales doubled from that point onwards).
Long amount of time over 200$
wii: 2 years
Saturn: 400$
3do: 400$
ps3: 400$
360: 400$

now, consoles that sold for 200 or less for >75% of their lifetime:
ps2,ps1,snes,nes,n64, genesis, NintendoDS/advance

Now consoles that did terribly despite low price:
dreamcast, TG-16, Gamecube, (the reasons for poor sales were ps2 for the DC and GC, and sega/snes for the TG-16)

Just by looking at these partial set of numbers the most successful consoles in history sold for a price between 250-300$ (adjusted for inflation)

This next part is separate,

Now if you take pacthers quote, that missing 25% is pretty much comprised of wii sales, and one year of ps1/ps2 sales plus xbox360+ps3 sales.

Pitting the numbers against each other, you can see that the wii/360/ps3 and all the others (3do/jaguar/saturn) only make up 25% of sales. Of course as time is going on the Wii is destroying that ratio because ps2+ps1 sold about 17m in the time they were over 200$, and the ps360 have only sold about 39m.  If the Wii were at 200$ since the start, the "golden ratio" would be somewhere closer to 85%-90% (extra 5% for possibly improved sales) of consoles sell at 200$ price point.

Note: if there is confusion, it will probably lie in the part where I adjust for inflation. Patcher talks about 200$ price point, which theoretically is wrong because of inflation, however, 200$ IS where most of the consoles have sold the majority of their product

GameCube someone ? :)

Nothing will happen, PS3 sales will rise for a bit, then they will fall, they might start outselling 360 but thats it.

I imagine it not being too different from now.

When am I supposed to imagine this happening again?? Cause if it's to late... I could easily imagine a 99.99 Wii and 150.00 360... so it wouldn't matter to much.

I imagine a day when PS3 owners face reality, accept it, and just enjoy their damned console already. Play some Valkyria Chronicles, LBP, Resistance 2, and stop posting this nonsense. This isn't 2006. Your system has games now. Enjoy them :)

Just to keep you guys with your feet on the ground:

1. Console sales don't just increase with pricecuts. Pricecuts are meant to keep the sales at a flat level
2. Price is not the defining factor in console sales
3 Competiting consoles will always be cheaper.
4. Next gen will have started before PS3 can reach the $200 price level
5. Imagine Gamecube @ $99...