I actually keep weekly averages by month in my spreadsheet:

I think the PS3 will be very hard pressed to see 250k per week gains in '09 based on this.  They were fairly close in '07 and will very likely be close again this year.  I have no doubt that the PS3 will likely outperform the 360 during the '09 holiday but a 250k average per week over Nov/Dec is a tall order considering that neither of them has ever topped an average of 250k outside of December (excepting the single 360 week counted in Nov '05).

It's certainly possible with a good PS3 bump and a good 360 slip but I don't think it's a very likely scenario given current information.  The best scenario I see for this happening, is the PS3 hitting a sub-$300 price point before the '09 holidays as well as a 360 successor being announced before then as well.  Considering that the 360 was announced 1274 days after the Xbox launched the Xbox360 successor would, if the same schedule is used, be announced on May 19th 2009 and would be launched Nov 29th of the same year.  I'm not convinced that this will happen given the 360's considerably larger degree of success and current profitability, but if it does happen your scenario becomes significantly more likely.

Edit: For thoroughness: The current deficit for the PS3 is 5.562M units, so if we give it the 2.250M estimate for the '09 holidays it still would need to deal with the remaining 3.312M unit deficit. Assuming a 1M unit gain from holiday '08, it will have 2.312M units to make up during Jan '09 to the start of Nov '09.  During Jan-Oct '08 the PS3 made up about 32.5K units per week (1.4M units overall), and in '09 it would then need to make up 53.8k units per week, an increase of 21.3k (60%) units worth of gain each week.  This non-holiday unit increase is again possible, but difficult. 

The main factor is really going to be a 360 successor.  If it is announced in '09 the PS3 will have a shot at making up the gap in '09, even then it needs to be announced earlier in the year not later, even May '09 may be to late for the weekly unit gains to catch up.  Of course if no 360 successor is announced in '09 I don't think it will make up the gap until 2010 at the earliest, and probably not until CYQ3 '10.

I think the "never" option is appealing to some given the current circumstances but things can change, and they can change dramatically.  What we know right now is that MS has exhausted much of its price cut, bundling, and marketing options to get where it is right now. 

What I think may not be very clear to some is that the 360 has almost certainly already hit its peak 3rd party development allocation.  From here on out it will either stay the same or go down. Most likely it will be remaining at the same level for the next 2 quarters or more. The PS3 on the other hand has not hit its peak due to doubts about it's longevity during mid-'07 similar to the Wii's situation due to doubts prior to its launch.  Again to be clear the 360's 3rd party development allocation is currently very good, but its not likely to be going any higher, the point I'm making is one of the changes to the current situation, and this is a factor that will very likely be changing in the PS3's favor.  Interestingly this is actually significantly mitigated if MS does announce a new box because developers are likely to shift their development to the new Xbox platform rather than spread it amongst the PS3 and Wii platforms.

The PS3 will overtake the 360 but.....i think when it does, it will be an irrelevant milestone

Sqrl, I´m very curious to read your predictions :)

Don´t let this thread go away without your input.

Late 2009, hopefully FF13 and GT5 will both be out in Japan by then at the very least. Killzone 2 and GOW 3 should help them in NA.

I like that many PS3 fans act more mature than a few months ago. Go guys vgchartz needs this type of posts and arguments.

On topic now, i believe the PS3 will outsell the XBOX 360 the 2nd quarter of 2010...

In 2009? No way, people here thinks that MS will retain their prices in 2009 with the Xbox 360 slim version - Their cost will be reduced with the CPU+GPU Chip, and you think that their sales will mantein the same?

Don't forget:
Ps3: Cell + Blu Ray + Wi-Fi + bluetooth + Memory Cards reader

Xbox 360 will be even cheapper next year.

It may never happen.

I won't be surprised if 360 sells way more than the PS3 this holiday season. With the weaker economy, people aren't as anxious to spend a lot. And at $200, the 360 has just entered into a new age bracket market that previously was almost exclusive to the Wii.

I do not believe it will ever happen, but if it does, it won't be until late 2010 or early 2011. The PS3 has to outsell the 360 by over 5 million, so that is out of the question for 2009. I also believe that a properly-advertised New Xbox Experience, along with its' affordable price point, will be a big selling point for Microsoft from this holiday on.

@thekitchensink

the NXE is non event sofar (as Home)

bet on Gears of War2 or bet on nothing