@Ghost - Can I have links to polls and such. Not that I don't believe ya, I'd just be interested in reading about it all.
| SamuelRSmith said: @Ghost - Can I have links to polls and such. Not that I don't believe ya, I'd just be interested in reading about it all. |
Every poll you could ever want:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
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It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
^Thanks.
If Obama keeps his numbers up, it could have an impact.
In the city, it's a pain in the ass to vote. Sometimes taking 4+ hours. In the country, voting is fast. If its obvious Obama will win, less of his supports will vote.
McCain will win by a good margin. McCain FTW
| TheRealMafoo said: If Obama keeps his numbers up, it could have an impact. In the city, it's a pain in the ass to vote. Sometimes taking 4+ hours. In the country, voting is fast. If its obvious Obama will win, less of his supports will vote. |
The problem with this example is that the base is energized. Lets face it, alot of the inner city voters are excited about having the first african american president. To many of the older african americans, this is history. They lived through and remember the civil rights era and this is the culmination of it. Not only that, they are going to bge ragging on the younger african ameicans about it too. And the younger ones are excited as well, this is historic. Believe me, they will be voting. Look at the early voting lines, the democratic margins in many states are larger than they were in 2004 (absentee numbers do not count because the point I am making is about the lines). Not only this, many younger voters and even middle aged voters are excited about the election. The democratic canidate has a large advantage of supporters being excited to vote for him as opposed to not excited. This is vastly improved from '04 or '00.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111115/Democrats-Election-Enthusiasm-Far-Outweighs-Republicans.aspx
So how does this translate? This means that democratic supporters will stand in line longer than republicans. This also translates to votes going out becasue they are excited vs McCain voters who may stay in if they think they are finished. Lastly, since this is history, I believe this will help people voting for obama come out.
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Very unlikely. McCain has practically no chance of winning the election, unless it is rigged like the Bush-Al Gore President election back in 2000.
I really don't see how McCain can come out and win this, barring something huge coming out, like Obama Rapes single mothers while eating babies and making them watch 2 girls 1 cup.
Don't focus so much on "National" polls, but more so the state polling because of the Electoral College.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
This site is great to see how the polling stats break down and is operated by a very smart young man, Nate silver.
He doesn't do polling himself, but he has worked out the statistics of the election and has been on many news programs in the US talking about the race and how this numbers show it coming out.
Looking at this, it's very likely, especially this close to the election that Obama will pull out the victory, and rather convincingly.
And I'm happy that it's not McCain that will win. We cannot have him run this country and get us out of this economic crisis, which the world is counting on us bouncing back... If the US goes into a depression, so will most of the world.
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| steven787 said: The Gallup poll was the only nation wide poll back then, the last one was done Oct 18 and they were done by phone, but in 1948 only affluent people owned phones. There were two Democrats (running as Progressive and Socialist) and one Dixiecrat running against Truman(D) and Dewey(R). Predictions figured that those would pull votes away from Truman and give it to Dewey. The paper with the famous line, "Dewey Defeats Truman", was the Chicago Tribune, a conservative paper. If anything, the only correlation between that election and this one that can be drawn is that affluent people are more likely to be home during polling hours. |
Full of win.
Snesboy said:
Full of win.
|
Actually I forgot to mention another similarity and difference, the third parties today (Barr and Nader) are polled to be about as significant as the third parties in 48; however, there's only two major TP candidate and one pulls Dem votes and one pulls Rep votes. All of those '48 candidates were left w/ variations (Dixiecrats were a mix with a State's rights (read: racist) platform.)
I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.
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