McCain will pull a Truman upset...

[steven787]

Snesboy said:

steven787 said:
The Gallup poll was the only nation wide poll back then, the last one was done Oct 18 and they were done by phone, but in 1948 only affluent people owned phones.

There were two Democrats (running as Progressive and Socialist) and one Dixiecrat running against Truman(D) and Dewey(R). Predictions figured that those would pull votes away from Truman and give it to Dewey.

The paper with the famous line, "Dewey Defeats Truman", was the Chicago Tribune, a conservative paper.

If anything, the only correlation between that election and this one that can be drawn is that affluent people are more likely to be home during polling hours.

Full of win.

 

 

Actually I forgot to mention another similarity and difference, the third parties today (Barr and Nader) are polled to be about as significant as the third parties in 48; however, there's only two major TP candidate and one pulls Dem votes and one pulls Rep votes.  All of those '48 candidates were left w/ variations (Dixiecrats were a mix with a State's rights (read: racist) platform.)