McCain will pull a Truman upset...

[Aiemond]

TheRealMafoo said:
If Obama keeps his numbers up, it could have an impact.

In the city, it's a pain in the ass to vote. Sometimes taking 4+ hours. In the country, voting is fast. If its obvious Obama will win, less of his supports will vote.

The problem with this example is that the base is energized. Lets face it, alot of the inner city voters are excited about having the first african american president. To many of the older african americans, this is history. They lived through and remember the civil rights era and this is the culmination of it. Not only that, they are going to bge ragging on the younger african ameicans about it too. And the younger ones are excited as well, this is historic. Believe me, they will be voting. Look at the early voting lines, the democratic margins in many states are larger than they were in 2004 (absentee numbers do not count because the point I am making is about the lines). Not only this, many younger voters and even middle aged voters are excited about the election. The democratic canidate has a large advantage of supporters being excited to vote for him as opposed to not excited. This is vastly improved from '04 or '00.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111115/Democrats-Election-Enthusiasm-Far-Outweighs-Republicans.aspx

 

So how does this translate? This means that democratic supporters will stand in line longer than republicans. This also translates to votes going out becasue they are excited vs McCain voters who may stay in if they think they are finished. Lastly, since this is history, I believe this will help people voting for obama come out.