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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The official NTDOY/Nintendo discussion thread

donkeykong128 on 25 April 2008
Lingyis said:
donkeykong128 said:
i dont get how stocks are not sky rocketing with record breaking sales... they cant make them fast enough. i still say they will go up due to previous console sales. they dont make money off consoles. they make money off games. and now that so many consoles have been soled, game sales should go up making stock sales go up. Im thinking if i buy now and hold out till after christmas il get a ten - twenty percent return. you guys agree?

it's not about sales numbers, it's about EXPECTATION of sales, and how they match up with actual sales numbers.  the market has already priced in growth in nintendo sales, so the stock wouldn't go up very much if sales do indeed turn out thatway.   so, in other words, to make market-beating returns, you need to find stocks where your expectation is more accurate than the market's expectation.  that was indeed the case a year or two ago when people were slow to realize the success of the wii.

comments like:

"ntdoy stocks have gone up this week through the end of april for the last 4 years"

to me sounds like data-snooping.  basically data-snooping means "if you spend enough time looking for a pattern you will find it", but it may not have any significance. 

 


I didnt say it had any significance i actually said its probably not significant and i did say i spent too much time, anyways that is the only month i checked into and you sound like you know what your talking about. is there a similar thread for SNE? if so can anyone post the link. i missed out on ntdoy but not sne.



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XtraZero on 13 May 2008

We seem to be hitting a ceiling of sorts.



EllensProphet on 01 June 2008

I think the ceiling is related to the fact that if they cannot produce enough stock to keep it on the shelf, then they cannot blow away sales numbers again.



The urge to play is a terrible thing to waste.

EllensProphet on 11 June 2008

7974 is below the 50 DMA again. Even the dollar getting stronger has not helped the stock this time. Volume is a little low too. Looks to be headed lower to me. Anyone else sold a chunk of their shares looking to buy back lower?



The urge to play is a terrible thing to waste.

EllensProphet on 12 July 2008

7974 -- the 50 DMA is above the 200 DMA, and the quarterly report is coming up and ought to be good and include raised guidance (maybe even for 2010). Keep an eye out for a trading opportunity.



The urge to play is a terrible thing to waste.

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GameKyuubi on 25 July 2008

Ouch. Today hurts.



EllensProphet on 28 July 2008

Neoseeker excerpt on Nintendo:
Nintendo might have been boo'ed for its lack of focus on "core" gamers during its recent E3 conference, but analysts and industry folk alike feel the company will still enjoy success in the coming months thanks to its catering towards casual audiences. Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter in particular predicts Nintendo will report sales greater than ¥421 billion ($3.91 billion USD) for its first quarter fincial results, due later this week. This is a little higher than the "current consensus" of ¥400 billion ($3.72 billion USD) cited for the quarter. Both sets of figures are still much higher than the Q1 fiscal 2007 results of ¥340 billion ($2.8 billion USD) reported by Nintendo last July.

Beat by around 8%, earnings up 30% YOY, and what will they raise guidance by? Maybe 10 or 15%?



The urge to play is a terrible thing to waste.

TheSource on 28 July 2008

DS sw should be as expected or up 5-10%

DS hw should be as expected.

Wii hw should get a boost of 10-20% 

Wii sw could get an even bigger boost

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

EllensProphet on 30 July 2008

Your estimate was pretty close, but the gutless worm of a Japanese video game maker kept its annual outlook well short of market expectations. Drat! The dividend ought to be around 3% if the shares stay flat.



The urge to play is a terrible thing to waste.

FishyJoe on 30 July 2008

Sure is frustration to see it fall after giving such a strong report. The Japanese investors really confuse me sometimes.

The only negative I see in the report is they didn't raise guidance, but that doesn't seem worthy of such a massive discounting. This isn't Garmin after all.

The other negative I see is they don't seem to be recapitalizing their profits. They are just accumulating cash as far as I can tell.