The official NTDOY/Nintendo discussion thread

[donkeykong128]

Lingyis said:

donkeykong128 said:
i dont get how stocks are not sky rocketing with record breaking sales... they cant make them fast enough. i still say they will go up due to previous console sales. they dont make money off consoles. they make money off games. and now that so many consoles have been soled, game sales should go up making stock sales go up. Im thinking if i buy now and hold out till after christmas il get a ten - twenty percent return. you guys agree?

it's not about sales numbers, it's about EXPECTATION of sales, and how they match up with actual sales numbers.  the market has already priced in growth in nintendo sales, so the stock wouldn't go up very much if sales do indeed turn out thatway.   so, in other words, to make market-beating returns, you need to find stocks where your expectation is more accurate than the market's expectation.  that was indeed the case a year or two ago when people were slow to realize the success of the wii.

comments like:

"ntdoy stocks have gone up this week through the end of april for the last 4 years"

to me sounds like data-snooping.  basically data-snooping means "if you spend enough time looking for a pattern you will find it", but it may not have any significance. 

 

I didnt say it had any significance i actually said its probably not significant and i did say i spent too much time, anyways that is the only month i checked into and you sound like you know what your talking about. is there a similar thread for SNE? if so can anyone post the link. i missed out on ntdoy but not sne.