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Forums - Sales Discussion - I've been paying atention to console sales predictions......come on people!

Wii: 40 million
360: 25.5 million
Ps3: 20 million



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Here are my predictions from last December:
Wii = 44.2m
X360 = 25.8m
PS3 = 21.2m

10 months later, I think I will stick with them.



you might want to change the Wii, its too high~



Wii: 46 million
360: 28 million
PS3: 21 million

I see the 360 eating alot of the PS3's marketshare if more multiplatform games are released than first party Sony games. Also I see people buying Blu-ray players for 299.99(If at all) or less rather than PS3, given the financial crisis. I also see Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Music selling strongly during the holidays WW. Animal Crossing will be big in Japan(800k or 1.5million). Also I don't see GeoW2 or Fable II being big console sellers. Halo 2 can only happen once, I believe. LBP is pending. The genre is fairly niche.



Pixel Art can be fun.

Below is my WW predictions.

*2007 date range = 13th of Oct to 5th of Jan. Using:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39369&end=39453&weekly=1

**My prediction would be through week of 4th of Jan 2009.

------------PS3----------

2007* = 4,002,066 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 15.90m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 19,902,066 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 20,102,169 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 20,302,272 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 20,702,479 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 21,502,892 sold.

So, basically Sony should sell about 20 million consoles by end of this year as I don't think they would possibly have more than a 10% increase on sales compared to last year. There are some better games this year, but there is no price drop. I bet they get about a 5-7% gain on YoY.

----------360----------

2007* = 3,769,945 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 21.44m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 25,209,945 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 25,398,442 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 25,586,939 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 25,963,934 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 26,717,923 sold.

Even with the 360 discount and a solid game release, it would still be highly unlikely to see greater than a 20% increase in YoY sales. So I would peg 25m as my prediction.

----------Wii----------

2007* = 7,030,839 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 33.41m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 40,440,839 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 40,792,380 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 41,143,922 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 41,847,006 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 43,253,174 sold.

Keeping in mind that NoA stated that Nintendo will have 50% more supply this year as compared to last. Most of us have taken that to only mean NA supply and not WW, so WW would probably be guaranteed 20-30% increase in YoY if demand still meets supply as it did last year.

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

 

EDIT: I also just realized with my lower prediction, Wii will not make 50% market share this year. :(
They would have to sell about 46m to make that. I guess I have to hope for the 50% increase NoA spoke of as being WW.



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tuoyo said:
Millennium said:
As it stands, the Wii currently makes just under 2 million Wiis per month, and the November boost will bring that number to just over 2 million; the average over these three months will probably be just about in the 2 million range. Thus, I predict 37-38 million sold by the end of the year: 2 million per month for the next 2.5 months.

 No way in hell is Nintendo going to sell that little over the next 2.5 months.  Both retailers and Nintendo would have been stockpiling for the holiday season and the Wiis available will be way in excess of your figures.

Then where are they getting their stockpiles? Over time, Wii sales have been averaging basically what Nintendo says it can produce. This leaves nothing left over to build a stockpile.

There is a painful truth that has to be dealt with here: Nintendo cannot sell a Wii that has not been built. Neither can Sony and MS, of course, but Nintendo seems to be running into this problem a lot more often these days.



Complexity is not depth. Machismo is not maturity. Obsession is not dedication. Tedium is not challenge. Support gaming: support the Wii.

Be the ultimate ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today! Poisson Village welcomes new players.

What do I hate about modern gaming? I hate tedium replacing challenge, complexity replacing depth, and domination replacing entertainment. I hate the outsourcing of mechanics to physics textbooks, art direction to photocopiers, and story to cheap Hollywood screenwriters. I hate the confusion of obsession with dedication, style with substance, new with gimmicky, old with obsolete, new with evolutionary, and old with time-tested.
There is much to hate about modern gaming. That is why I support the Wii.

Millennium said:
tuoyo said:
Millennium said:
As it stands, the Wii currently makes just under 2 million Wiis per month, and the November boost will bring that number to just over 2 million; the average over these three months will probably be just about in the 2 million range. Thus, I predict 37-38 million sold by the end of the year: 2 million per month for the next 2.5 months.

 No way in hell is Nintendo going to sell that little over the next 2.5 months.  Both retailers and Nintendo would have been stockpiling for the holiday season and the Wiis available will be way in excess of your figures.

Then where are they getting their stockpiles? Over time, Wii sales have been averaging basically what Nintendo says it can produce. This leaves nothing left over to build a stockpile.

There is a painful truth that has to be dealt with here: Nintendo cannot sell a Wii that has not been built. Neither can Sony and MS, of course, but Nintendo seems to be running into this problem a lot more often these days.

 

Nintendo had the same problem last year, and had a lower manufacturing capacity, and yet still was able to sell more systems last year than you think they can sell this year.



Millennium said:
tuoyo said:
Millennium said:
As it stands, the Wii currently makes just under 2 million Wiis per month, and the November boost will bring that number to just over 2 million; the average over these three months will probably be just about in the 2 million range. Thus, I predict 37-38 million sold by the end of the year: 2 million per month for the next 2.5 months.

 No way in hell is Nintendo going to sell that little over the next 2.5 months.  Both retailers and Nintendo would have been stockpiling for the holiday season and the Wiis available will be way in excess of your figures.

Then where are they getting their stockpiles? Over time, Wii sales have been averaging basically what Nintendo says it can produce. This leaves nothing left over to build a stockpile.

There is a painful truth that has to be dealt with here: Nintendo cannot sell a Wii that has not been built. Neither can Sony and MS, of course, but Nintendo seems to be running into this problem a lot more often these days.

Painful truths indeed...but the painful truth is that Nintendo had production over 2.1M monthly early in the year, was aiming for 2.4M in July, and god only knows where they are right now.  On the other hand their best month was May when they hit just north of 1.9M units sold, but they've only averaged around 1.5M units per month from Jan through Sep. 

Cold hard truth is that there are about 6.2M Wii's already stockpiled at the end of September, by the end of October this will likely be around 6.6M or so (probably more) and there will be another 4.8M produced during Nov & Dec...although the usefulness of December's production is debatable.

In total if we assume no further production increase beyond what they've explicitly told us then we are looking at around 11M units for the months of Nov/Dec. 

edit: reposting this:

40% Rule Estimate

Wii PS3 X360
YTD Sep 27th '08 13.58M 6.78M 5.29M
Holiday Qtr
~12.15M ~5.80M ~5.18M
YET '08
~25.72M ~12.58M ~10.47M
LTD Jan 1st '09 ~44.93M ~21.44M ~26.29M

 

Prediction

Wii - 45.3m
PS3 - 21.8M
360 - 26.5

 



To Each Man, Responsibility

I'll stick with my sig.



4 ≈ One

libellule said:
Seihyouken said:
Last year PS3 sold over 4 million consoles between October 14th 2007 and January 6th 2008.

That was a period when the system had A 100$ PRICE CUT, 3 AAA GAMES, COD4, Oblivion & Rock Band and had HD-DVD still competing with Blu-ray.

Expect PS3 to sell at least 5 million more by 2009.

 

 fixed ;)

 

Fixed