I've been paying atention to console sales predictions......come on people!

[Sqrl]

Millennium said:

tuoyo said:

Millennium said:
As it stands, the Wii currently makes just under 2 million Wiis per month, and the November boost will bring that number to just over 2 million; the average over these three months will probably be just about in the 2 million range. Thus, I predict 37-38 million sold by the end of the year: 2 million per month for the next 2.5 months.

 No way in hell is Nintendo going to sell that little over the next 2.5 months.  Both retailers and Nintendo would have been stockpiling for the holiday season and the Wiis available will be way in excess of your figures.

Then where are they getting their stockpiles? Over time, Wii sales have been averaging basically what Nintendo says it can produce. This leaves nothing left over to build a stockpile.

There is a painful truth that has to be dealt with here: Nintendo cannot sell a Wii that has not been built. Neither can Sony and MS, of course, but Nintendo seems to be running into this problem a lot more often these days.

Painful truths indeed...but the painful truth is that Nintendo had production over 2.1M monthly early in the year, was aiming for 2.4M in July, and god only knows where they are right now.  On the other hand their best month was May when they hit just north of 1.9M units sold, but they've only averaged around 1.5M units per month from Jan through Sep. 

Cold hard truth is that there are about 6.2M Wii's already stockpiled at the end of September, by the end of October this will likely be around 6.6M or so (probably more) and there will be another 4.8M produced during Nov & Dec...although the usefulness of December's production is debatable.

In total if we assume no further production increase beyond what they've explicitly told us then we are looking at around 11M units for the months of Nov/Dec. 

edit: reposting this:

	40% Rule Estimate
	Wii	PS3	X360
YTD Sep 27th '08	13.58M	6.78M	5.29M
Holiday Qtr	~12.15M	~5.80M	~5.18M
YET '08	~25.72M	~12.58M	~10.47M
LTD Jan 1st '09	~44.93M	~21.44M	~26.29M

 

Prediction

Wii - 45.3m
PS3 - 21.8M
360 - 26.5