Title                             Sales

MGS4                           3.31m

Infinite Undiscovery     .26m

Ace Combat 6           .53m

Tales Of Vesperia    .24m

Eternal Sonata (360)    .28m

Beautiful Katamari     .32m

Haze                          .42m

Blue Dragon              .51m

Time Crisis 4            .44m

Just curious?

Ace Combat 6 definitely shipped 750k, VGC sales figures dont include EU

Most games that sell 500k are not going to fail massively, and many of those below are still going to sell in the future to get closer to that figure, though IU and Haze will likely not make money

HAZE sold 420,000 copies!! .. those poor sods

Using a $20 to $30 to estimate publisher revenue for each of the games we get

MGS4: $66 to $100 Million
Infinite Undiscovery: $5 to 7.5 Million
Ace Combat 6 : $10 to $15 Million
Tales Of Vesperia : $5 to $7.5 Million
Eternal Sonata (360): $5 to $7.5 Million
Beautiful Katamari: $6 to $9 Million
Haze: $8 to $12 Million
Blue Dragon: $10 to $15 Million
Time Crisis 4: $8 to $12 Million

I think that even if some of these games did turn a profit, the return on investment would really not be that good.

Maybe we should also be looking at Too Human: 0.36m

The only game I think may not have made a profit there is Infinite Undiscovery, really.

I'm not too sure about Metal Gear Solid 4 myself ...

A large portion of their "Sales" would have come from bundles where it is unlikely that Konami made as much money as they would from a retail sale. On top of that, Metal Gear Solid 4 also had one of the larger marketing campaigns which would have added a large cost on top of the massive development budget.

"On those figs, MGS4 possibly... the rest no chance."

I wouldn't say that. not every game is a million seller

MGS4 - Yes, but not enough. MGS is a flagship title that most likely helped subsidize lesser-selling series. However, since MGS4 hasn't sold that well (after it's first awesome shipment), Konami hasn't seen the profits they'd of prefered.

Ace Combat 6 - Yes. VGC isn't including PAL sales data, which is most likely in the 200,000-300,000 range.

Infinite Undiscovery - Possibly. It really depends on shipment data to NA/PAL, since the copies were sold to retailers. The engine, it seems has been re-used in Star Ocean 4, which may have reduced overall costs to bring the game to market.

Tales of Vesperia - No. It hasn't shipped in PAL yet, which should tip the scales in it's favor. Also, it continues to do very well in Japan (top 20 for 2 months). I think that once MC/Famitsu data comes out for the fully 2008 report...We'll see ToV jump up on VGC's sell-through data.

Eternal Sonata - Doubtful. But it's in the same class as IU due to the engine similarity with Tales of Vesperia. This may have reduced its cost to where it wasn't too bad. Nevertheless, I don't think it made a profit.

Beautiful Katamari - Yes. Have you seen the graphics on the game? It was a budget title, and did rather well in the USA. Since it's PS2-quality, I think the dev costs were incredibly low.

Haze - No. I just don't see 400k being enough.

Blue Dragon - No. Not at 500k. I really dispute VGC's sellthrough data of Blue Dragon since PAL numbers seem very shoddy - any survey of PAL and Asiatic gamercards for Blue Dragon show that sellthrough was MUCH higher than the paltry 60,000 VGC reports. I would argue that sellthrough is closer to 600,000 or more, which would put it in category where it may have reached profitability.

Time Crisis 4 - Maybe. I tend to think that next-gen games need 500,000 (as per multiple devs) to look at profitability. Too close to call with certainty.

The development cost for MGS4 was through the roof.  Konami stated several times that they expected and needed stellar sales out of the title. 

You're right about bundles netting less money, but the bundles will give them more money than if there weren't bundles.  It was a win-win for Sony: they can promise to  bundle the game and absorb some additional cost and Konami will keep MGS 4 exclusive (for the time being) and Sony would also sell more systems.  But it would cost them extra.