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Forums - Sony Discussion - I don't think the PS3 can hit middle-high 5 mil consoles by the end of the year....

KruzeS on 22 July 2007

Hey you guys, let go of mitsuhide! His predictions are only as unrealistic as Sony's, that's expecting 16.5 million shipped by March '08.

Of course they'll both be proved wrong, but give him a break.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
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Bodhesatva on 22 July 2007
TheSource said:

Here is my expectation for PS3

PS3 Current Worldwide = 3.78 million

Americas - next 4 weeks - 120k

8 following weeks - 180k* (Madden/Lair/Warhawk out, but $500 model is phased out)

(GTA Releases) 4 following weeks* - 420k

4 weeks of November - 480k

4 weeks of December - 700k

Japan - (20 weeks)(15,000)+ (3 weeks)(35,000) + (5 weeks)(100,000)

Europe = Americas (2/3) = 1.26 million**

PS3 LTD Sales = 7.85 million

* = These 12 weeks are the most critical for the PS3 in the Americas I think. It will be very interesting to see if new IP can drive sales growth. Madden will move some units, as will GTA, but both are available on 360, so I don't know exactly how many PS3s will be moved

** = PS3 has not had a Christmas season in Europe yet, so it is tough to determine how it will sell there over the holidays.

My range is 6.25 to 8.25 million by the end of the year. Outside that range would surprise me.


 This seems right to me.



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roadkillers on 22 July 2007
TheSource said:

Here is my expectation for PS3

PS3 Current Worldwide = 3.78 million

Americas - next 4 weeks - 120k

                8 following weeks - 180k* (Madden/Lair/Warhawk out, but $500 model is phased out)

                (GTA Releases) 4 following weeks* - 420k

                4 weeks of November - 480k

                4 weeks of December - 700k 

Japan - (20 weeks)(15,000)+ (3 weeks)(35,000) + (5 weeks)(100,000)

Europe = Americas (2/3) = 1.26 million**

PS3 LTD Sales = 7.85 million

* = These 12 weeks are the most critical for the PS3 in the Americas I think.  It will be very interesting to see if new IP can drive sales growth.  Madden will move some units, as will GTA, but both are available on 360, so I don't know exactly how many PS3s will be moved

** = PS3 has not had a Christmas season in Europe yet, so it is tough to determine how it will sell there over the holidays.

My range is 6.25 to 8.25 million by the end of the year.  Outside that range would surprise me.


Ya with non of there really huge games comming this year I would have to agree with this.



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Diomedes1976 on 22 July 2007

Well ,PS3 sales are just starting to improve .In PAl region they are picking somewhat and will make a push with the Starter Pack ,in Japan it is slowly gaining some momentum and next week will be BIG ,in USA after the price drop sales have more than doubled (wait until NPD data for July ) .Plus ,the Christmas season is very big in NA ,Pal and Japan ,and the PS3 will make a big push in those three markets when a lot of money is spent and spending in a 500-600 dollar machine can be viewed as feasible .So maybe your estimations are a bit low Soriku ,PS3 is about to hit 4 million and you dont think it will another 2 million for the rest of the year including the christmas in all three regions ?

We will see .



Diomedes1976 on 22 July 2007
Soriku said:
And I forgot to say that Capcom said they might bring RE5 to Wii if RE: UC does well :P They said it won't come in 08 so 09 which is plenty of time to make it for the Wii.

Sorry to burst your bubble but Capcom hasnt said anything like that .



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Diomedes1976 on 22 July 2007

By the way The Source ,I agree with your numbers .They are conservative ,but just right from what we are seeing .



Bodhesatva on 22 July 2007
Diomedes1976 said:
Soriku said:
And I forgot to say that Capcom said they might bring RE5 to Wii if RE: UC does well :P They said it won't come in 08 so 09 which is plenty of time to make it for the Wii.

Sorry to burst your bubble but Capcom hasnt said anything like that .


Yeah, Diomedes is right, although it's important to note that Capcom did say that they would bring more Resident Evil games to the Wii if UC did well. That doesn't mean RE5, it just means more Resident Evil. Perhaps 6? Who knows, but 5 is extremely unlikely. 



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HappySqurriel on 22 July 2007
Diomedes1976 said:
Soriku said:
And I forgot to say that Capcom said they might bring RE5 to Wii if RE: UC does well :P They said it won't come in 08 so 09 which is plenty of time to make it for the Wii.

Sorry to burst your bubble but Capcom hasnt said anything like that .


I thought that Capcom implied that Resident Evil 4 and Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles were "Tests" ...

People interpreted that to mean that "Resident Evil 5 will come to the Wii if these games sell well" but it could also mean that they will make a spin-off series or create (or resurect) similar IPs.



roadkillers on 22 July 2007

How many pre-orders does EG5 have? I have a feeling that game is gunna move a lot of PS3's since I seen it on the Most wanted list for Japan.



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Darc Requiem on 22 July 2007

I agree with the Source. TheSource is the best sales analyst in gaming. Too bad he isn't getting paid and Pachter is. I think the PS3 will end up with around 7 million units sold by the end of the year. Soriku, I honestly don't know how you can think the PS3 will be in the 5 million range. Do you realize the amount gaming hardware that is sold during the last two months of the year?