Tetsuya brought up a good point awhile back (and was ressurected) about what makes a bomb, and there are always ranges for various games, but what exactly would we be unimpressed by for the supposed big IPs in the US, and Japan?

So Im wondering for the following big games, what would we consider a bad start? Not that opening weeks are the be-all end all, but how would you feel if Metrioid Prime started with 100k first week?

 Lets give to ranges....The "dissapointment/bomb" number, and a "really good" first week.

So what about the following games for North America:

Lair (PS3)

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii)

Halo 3 (X360)

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360)

Bioshock (360)

Blue Dragon (360)

Mass Effect (360)

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii)

Super Smash Brothers (Wii)

Heavenly Sword (PS3)

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360)

I cant think of any other uber-major titles, outside of a few mid sized one.

Personally, I would consider disappointments and "great" being:

Lair (PS3) - 100k / 200k

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 150k / 250k

Halo 3 (X360) - 750k / 1,250k

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 300k / 500k

Bioshock (360) - 125k / 250k

Blue Dragon (360) - 75k / 200k

Mass Effect (360) - 175k / 300k

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 300k / 600k

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 250k / 500k

Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 50k / 150k

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 600k (both) / 1,250k

How about you? I wanted to do this thread so that if a game does indeed bomb, we can reffer back to this, to see what everyone's expectations for first week sales were/are.

It will be a little harder for PS3 titles to get as big right now as Wii or 360 sales will but on the other hand PS3 owners have been waiting for these games. I could easily see half of PS3 owners in the US picking up Lair and Heavenly Sword....mine have been paid for since march and may...

halo 3.......1M/2M i may be a little low

MP3........250k/400k

Lair.......100k/300k

Mass Effect........100k/350k

SMG..........300k/600k

GTA4.............500k/1m (both platforms)

Bioshock..............175k/400k

CoD4............175k/450k

Blue Dragon............45k/300k

Super Smash Brothers..........300k/500k

Heavenly Sword...........75k/140k

WiiFit...........85k/185k (really long legs......really long....{is it coming out this year?})

For the first number, I have less than (

Lair (PS3) - 95k / 205k

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 145k / 255k

Halo 3 (X360) - 745k / 1,255k

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 295k / 505k

Bioshock (360) - 120k / 255k

Blue Dragon (360) - 70k / 205k

Mass Effect (360) - 170k / 305k

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 295k / 605k

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 245k / 505k

Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 45k / 155k

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 595k (both) / 1,255k

I'm no good at estimating weekly software numbers...

The 'Big IPs' are not necessarily 'Big IPs' in both North America and Japan ...

I don't really have very high expectations for Metroid Prime 3, Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock,  Mass Effect, Blue Dragon or Grand Theft Auto 4 in Japan; I even have doubts that Heavenly Sword will sell particularly well in Japan because God of War was not popular in Japan at all. This leaves Lair, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros which I would say:

Lair - < 50k / 100k >
Super Mario Galaxy - < 150k / 300k >
Super Smash Bros - < 150k / 300 k

In North America I'm a little less able to make an accurate prediction on many of the titles because I believe that since many of these titles are new IPs (Lair, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon and Heavenly Sword) how well they're marketed will make a big impact, and the rest of the titles will depend heavily on when they're released, what they're released against, and whether people are motivated to buy a system for that particular game.

Lair (PS3) - 100k / 250k

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 100k / 200k

Halo 3 (X360) - 1,000k / 2,000k

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 500k / 750k

Bioshock (360) - 100k / 200k

Blue Dragon (360) - 50k / 100k

Mass Effect (360) - 250k / 500k

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 300k / 500k

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 250k / 500k

Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 100k / 250k

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 1,250k / 2,250k

first of I´m not good at predictions so I´ll leave it to the pros (or fanboys just for amusement) what I have to say is that some games even if they are very popular will have a harder time as others because they are fighting for the same (or similar) ground (Halo3, Bioshock, Call of Duty 4) while we all know these are 3 very different games most people who play these games may only buy one or two this year so they might have a harder time while the big 3 (killed my baby) will not have that problem.

The only one I can really predict is Halo 3, Max. sales are max. of production (I´d say a cool mil.) and min. sales are everything below. 

first to get why I posted "killed my baby" up there (don´t google it) will win.........great honor and a cheeseburger

(warning cheeseburger may be old and from under my couch) 

Lair (PS3) - 100k / 200k
I'd agree with that.

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 150k / 250k
I'd go 25 or 50K higher for both numbers. For a big segment of the early adopters, this is the game they've been waiting for since they beat Zelda.

Halo 3 (X360) - 750k / 1,250k
Pokemon DP did 1.4 million in its first week. Even with the smaller install base, I think the low mark for Halo 3 has to be set at 900K or so.

Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 300k / 500k
Between the two formats, that sounds fair.

Bioshock (360) - 125k / 250k
I'd go lower. More than 200k first week would be really successful for this game I think. Forza did 208K first week, and while that may not have been "great", I think expectations for "360's Gran Turismo" have to be higher than for "360's System Shock."

Blue Dragon (360) - 75k / 200k
I'd take the high end lower. Again, this doesn't need a Forza-esque debut to impress me.

Mass Effect (360) - 175k / 300k
This seems to be the most hyped of the "second tier" (behind Halo and GTA) games for 360. I'd agree with those numbers.

Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 300k / 600k
This is a game which might sell 150K every week of release until the end of the year. Its hard to pick a good first week number for what should be a game with tall and long legs.

Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 250k / 500k
I'd actually expect a bigger first week for this game than Mario. Even though it should also have tall and long legs, I expect a monster first week moreso than Mario.

Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 50k / 150k
To the disappointment of PS3-hypers, I'd agree with these modest expectations.

Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 600k (both) / 1,250k
I'd set a higher low end... I think.

First thing that came to mind was a couple who were charged with the death of their baby (from malnurishment) due to neglect caused by the couples excessive playing of online MMO's.

Assuming it is funny, and I did not get it right, PM me what it was.