Lair (PS3) - 100k / 200k
I'd agree with that.
Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) - 150k / 250k
I'd go 25 or 50K higher for both numbers. For a big segment of the early adopters, this is the game they've been waiting for since they beat Zelda.
Halo 3 (X360) - 750k / 1,250k
Pokemon DP did 1.4 million in its first week. Even with the smaller install base, I think the low mark for Halo 3 has to be set at 900K or so.
Call of Duty 4 (PS3/360) - 300k / 500k
Between the two formats, that sounds fair.
Bioshock (360) - 125k / 250k
I'd go lower. More than 200k first week would be really successful for this game I think. Forza did 208K first week, and while that may not have been "great", I think expectations for "360's Gran Turismo" have to be higher than for "360's System Shock."
Blue Dragon (360) - 75k / 200k
I'd take the high end lower. Again, this doesn't need a Forza-esque debut to impress me.
Mass Effect (360) - 175k / 300k
This seems to be the most hyped of the "second tier" (behind Halo and GTA) games for 360. I'd agree with those numbers.
Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 300k / 600k
This is a game which might sell 150K every week of release until the end of the year. Its hard to pick a good first week number for what should be a game with tall and long legs.
Super Smash Brothers (Wii) - 250k / 500k
I'd actually expect a bigger first week for this game than Mario. Even though it should also have tall and long legs, I expect a monster first week moreso than Mario.
Heavenly Sword (PS3) - 50k / 150k
To the disappointment of PS3-hypers, I'd agree with these modest expectations.
Grand Theft Auto (PS3/X360) - 600k (both) / 1,250k
I'd set a higher low end... I think.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
