The 'Big IPs' are not necessarily 'Big IPs' in both North America and Japan ...
I don't really have very high expectations for Metroid Prime 3, Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon or Grand Theft Auto 4 in Japan; I even have doubts that Heavenly Sword will sell particularly well in Japan because God of War was not popular in Japan at all. This leaves Lair, Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros which I would say:
Lair - < 50k / 100k >
Super Mario Galaxy - < 150k / 300k >
Super Smash Bros - < 150k / 300 k
In North America I'm a little less able to make an accurate prediction on many of the titles because I believe that since many of these titles are new IPs (Lair, Bioshock, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon and Heavenly Sword) how well they're marketed will make a big impact, and the rest of the titles will depend heavily on when they're released, what they're released against, and whether people are motivated to buy a system for that particular game.
