So I finally signed up after a month of lurking. I just wanted to post my 2 cents about HD penetration. According to these sites: http://www.cesweb.org/press/news/rd_release_detail.asp?id=10913 http://ce.tekrati.com/research/news.asp?id=8446 http://www.parksassociates.com/press/press_releases/2005/hdtv-1.html HDTV sales in the US are very brisk. 12 M sold in 2005, and 16M in 2006. Assuming the same level of growth, that would mean 20+ M in 2007. Taking these numbers into effect(plus pre-2005 sales), I would guess that a majority of US households will have an HDTV sometime in 2008. Maybe even sooner. Interesting Quotes: In the 4th Q 2006 "The move to higher resolution models was clearly demonstrated by the fact that 1080p models accounted for nearly one-third of the total unit sales" "Nearly 47% of TV households in the U.S. plan to buy an HDTV in the next twelve months" Personally, I would be much more inclined to buy a Wii if it was HD, but because it's not, I probably won't. I'm sure I'm not alone.

@colh Ok, seems like my HD prediction might be the first to fall, but I don't give up on it just yet. I didn't realize people buy that many TVs at all per year (at least in the US). I always had the impression in my environment that people keep their TVs for 10 years or more, until they fall apart. Either way, the Wii does run in 16:9 480p, which looks good on any HDTV. EDIT:

I ckecked the report (it's from 2005), and that specific statistic didn't make sense. They predicted 47% of households planned to buy HDTVs in 2006, yet for 2009 they predicted for sales to rise by another 240% against 2006, which would be 113% of households buying HDTVs in 2009??

my predictions u may ask they may be a little off other wise id say there pretty acurate japan 1.wii: 1,000,000,000,000 2.ps3: 10,000 3.xbox360: 4 europe 1.wii: 100,000,000,000 2.xbox360:i dont care 3.ps3:3/4 america 1.wii:1000,000,000,000 2.xbox360:apple sauce 3.ps3:blue give or take in total wii will sell 100,000,000,000,000 making 10 wii for every house holds

Just a couple of thoughts on HDTVs ... Since about 1998 HDTV sales have always failed to meet up with analyst predictions ... Even if HDTVs get bought by most households over the next couple of years, people will still watch a lot of 480p content through Digital TV and their existing DVD library; if you assume a similar adoption rate for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray that DVD had most people will not have a HD-Player until 2011 or 2012. In families (or even married couples) the gaming system is unlikely to be attached to the 'primary' TV in the house; quite often the secondary TV in the house will be in a den and have gaming systems attached to it. Finally, what is a big selling feature to some (HD-output) may not be a big selling point to others; one of the people I know who is desperate to find a Wii is looking for one mainly for the virtual console (a feature I have not used). It is possible that in 2009-2010 enough people will not care enough about the Wii having HD-capabilities to lower sales dramatically.

Not gonna happen, or at least, very unlikely. Once the majority of support is behind the Wii, this will result in more hardware sales from the casuals. Even more software will be made for the system brining even more people in. More Hardware->More Software->More Hardware->More Software. Basically a cumulative snowball effect that is hard, if not impossible to overcome. If this were to happen, I'm sure great HD based games won't disappear. There is clearly a market for them, they are just tiny compared to the potential market that the Wii can tap. The XBOX and the Gamecube tanked last generation but that didnt stop Resident Evil 4, Halo II, Super Smash Bros Melee from being made for both consoles. The NES had a 10 year lifespan, and it looks like the PS2 is gonna have the same. I expect to see tons of Wii/PS2 ports in the immediate and medium term future.

You made it sound like they are selling 12m in 2005, then another 16M in 2006. This figure is actually 12m total in 2005, and then added 4 million, for a total of 16 million in 2006. Assuming people will buy 7 million more in 2007, 11 million more in 2008 and 15 million more in 2009, it won't be until 2010 until the majority of households have HDTV. And oh, the first link is about digital TV, not High Defintion TV.