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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Fanboy Prediction Thread: Crow Edition

Not even with Halo and/or a price drop? If the 360 doesn't have a better year then last year, I think Microsoft is in a bit of trouble.



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To be honest unless Halo 3 is the best thing since sliced bread, No. Also I think most people who are Halo fans already have an Xbox 360. A price drop would pick-up the 360 a little but the competion can do the same. The 360 missed a great tactical advantage by not having a price drop when the Wii/PS3 arrived.



My predictions Wii will outsell all consoles, the market is just so much bigger then those for the 360 and PS3. When you see the Wii kiosk at the mall and you have grampa playing wii bowling with there grandson jimmy, you know that little jimmy is getting a Wii from Grampa at his birthday. But I think the real battle is with the PS3 and 360. For those two, my prediction goes to the 360. Now hold your pants people but the 360 will outsell the PS3 year after year in WW sales. The reason is because each consoles will lose exclusives, and the ones that are left will cancel each other out, making the 360 a better buy because it's cheaper. I also believe that the 360 will pick up steam in Japan. Microsoft will keep pushing JRPG's. Blue Dragon helped sell 360's, next JRPG exclusive is Eternal Sonata. Microsoft will keep pushing them till they find that 1 game that breaks through the japanese market. Fantasy predictions - PS3 does NOT sell out in europe on it's launch!!!



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I'll admit the Wii is a bit of a dark horse and could do extremly well this generation. But I'm gonna stick to my guns on this one. Wii will be the first to 40 milliion WW probably as early as late 2008, however after that PS3/360 will by realitivly cheap for the bang HD offers and sales will start to pick-up from the casual gamer market which the Wii and PS2 are enjoying now. I think Late 2008 and 2009 will be the year for the PS3 and to a lesser extent the 360(more late 2007). HD TV's will be more the norm( you can't really even buy a SDTV in most shops here in England any more) and people will want to enjoy HD content on there TV. The bad thing for the 360 is Japan The bad thing for the PS3 is if the 360 hits critical mass in the West then in may not get any worthy 3rd party exclusives. The bad thing for the Wii is its lasting appeal. I don't see much on the horizon. Wii sports is selling the system at the moment. The good thing for all three systems is that the market is big enough for all three. They should all make it 40 million minimum but at this piont I don't see a walk away winner like the PS2. To pick one I would have to go with the PS3 because it has the most potential in the long run to appeal to all the major markets when the price comes down of course!



EagleHD said: I'll admit the Wii is a bit of a dark horse and could do extremly well this generation. But I'm gonna stick to my guns on this one. Wii will be the first to 40 milliion WW probably as early as late 2008, however after that PS3/360 will by realitivly cheap for the bang HD offers and sales will start to pick-up from the casual gamer market which the Wii and PS2 are enjoying now. I think Late 2008 and 2009 will be the year for the PS3 and to a lesser extent the 360(more late 2007). HD TV's will be more the norm( you can't really even buy a SDTV in most shops here in England any more) and people will want to enjoy HD content on there TV. The bad thing for the 360 is Japan The bad thing for the PS3 is if the 360 hits critical mass in the West then in may not get any worthy 3rd party exclusives. The bad thing for the Wii is its lasting appeal. I don't see much on the horizon. Wii sports is selling the system at the moment. The good thing for all three systems is that the market is big enough for all three. They should all make it 40 million minimum but at this piont I don't see a walk away winner like the PS2. To pick one I would have to go with the PS3 because it has the most potential in the long run to appeal to all the major markets when the price comes down of course!
Just as a question, if the Wii sells dramtically faster than the other systems (and ends up outselling the other systems) why would developers spend the extra money needed to produce an exclusive game for the XBox 360 or PS3? This is (essentially) what happened last generation with the PS2; it sold a lot of systems really early, which secured (most) third party exclusives and ensured ports of most other third party games, the XBox and Gamecube performed worse and rarely had games produced that took advantage of their extra processing power.



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my predictions: the wii will outsell 360 and ps3 for 2007 and 2008. In japan, it will go on to meet DS standards and break all record for a home console. x360 will be on xbox level, may be higher thanks to a lot of support ($$$$$$) by MS. PS3 will be a niche product selling like GC, appealing to hard core gamers only. In europe, the wii will be way ahead thx to a large grab of lapsed gamers (like me), casual and nintendo fanboys. x360 and ps3 will be neck to neck, ps3 appealing more but being way too expensive. In the US, the wii will be slightly ahead of the PS3 and the 360. Much closer race than any other territory cuz americans have more money to buy the PS3 than europeans and the hardcore gamers are more numerous. after 2009, it will probably evolve quite differently since i believe HD will be much more common and wii will need an upgrade sooner than the others. i do see the PS3 having the longest lifeline but note enough to recover from its terrible start.



HappySqurriel said: Just as a question, if the Wii sells dramtically faster than the other systems (and ends up outselling the other systems) why would developers spend the extra money needed to produce an exclusive game for the XBox 360 or PS3? This is (essentially) what happened last generation with the PS2; it sold a lot of systems really early, which secured (most) third party exclusives and ensured ports of most other third party games, the XBox and Gamecube performed worse and rarely had games produced that took advantage of their extra processing power.
Exactly. Should the Wii really sell 40 million units in 2.25 years I don't see how the other systems could still pick up speed on the 11th hour. However, I don't think it's a given at all. Wii Sports can sell the first 10 million units, but we're still waiting for more out-of-the-mould software from Nintendo. Please don't lift the Wii too high based on 3 months of sales. Another prediction of mine: I predict HDTVs won't cross 50% household penetration in the US before 2010. European HD penetration will be about 1 year behind.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

Wii Sports can sell the first 10 million units, but we're still waiting for more out-of-the-mould software from Nintendo. Please don't lift the Wii too high based on 3 months of sales. I predict HDTVs won't cross 50% household penetration in the US before 2010. European HD penetration will be about 1 year behind.
- sure, but a wii sports 2 with online enabled could provide 10 more millions...., nonewithstanding any wii brain or real wii pokemon... - if your estimates are correct, the wii's lifespan will indeed be long enough to dominate all markets, until a HD wii comes out.



HappySqurriel said: EagleHD said: Just as a question, if the Wii sells dramtically faster than the other systems (and ends up outselling the other systems) why would developers spend the extra money needed to produce an exclusive game for the XBox 360 or PS3?.
Well it depends on how dramatic I suppose, if/when Wii hits 40million it depends where 360/PS3 are 30million give or take? Also why do developers make games for the 360/PS3 when PS2 has 100million consoles out there? If it were all about money for the developers we would be stuck with 1st gen console games, it's because of consumer demand for something better and competion between companies, which usher in a new generation. And when a company can meet these demands at a sellable consumer price we have a new generation. All im saying is that Wii is meeting those demands at the moment but I don't think in can maintain that momentum thru all of this generation and I think 360/PS3 will be close enough behind to take advantage. Also comparing PS2 to Xbox/GC and Wii to 360/PS3 is like apples to oranges they are too disimilar.



EagleHD said: Well it depends on how dramatic I suppose, if/when Wii hits 40million it depends where 360/PS3 are 30million give or take?
How many kinds of dramatic are there? 40:30:30 is not dramatic. We were just speculating about a massive Wii lead.
EagleHD said: All im saying is that Wii is meeting those demands at the moment but I don't think in can maintain that momentum thru all of this generation and I think 360/PS3 will be close enough behind to take advantage.
The Wii is selling on the Wiimote as much as 360 and PS3 are selling on HD and media center capabilities. There's no way to tell now how much momentum the Wiimote will have, but Nintendo sure think it's enough for one generation.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.