i am far from new.. and i am very educated in my guess...risky maybe but i see a trend, and the trend is 360 on the rise...so I may be off by a week or 2 so what. bottom line is 2nd week of january at the latest for the 360 to hit 1,0OO,OOO

A new IP will almost double the boost from an established franchise? Unlikely. More reasonable estimates put it as equalling that spike, tops. Even if all three of the games you mention do manage to equal, that only takes care of some 5-6 weeks' worth of the required sales before the crash-and-burn effect pulls sales back down to normal. You still have four weeks to account for, and that's if these games create the same phenomenon that the price drop did.

It's just not going to happen.

I'm surprised you made it this far with no facepalms! Look you should stop taking whatever it is that you're taking because it is affecting your better judgment.

It's unlikly but the X360 has gave us surprises so.. who knows? :P

i like the doubt it makes it even more fun when it happens

I agree with you for the most part, and honestly the 360 and zero chance on hitting 1 million this year. Next year it will hit that figure easily, but not this year. However, I was surprised at Oblivion's Japanese sales - both the 360 and the PS3 versions did surprisingly well for a WRPG. With the general lack of JRPGs on consoles this gen, I wonder if WRPGs can make some advances into the Japanese market.

@KillaKB

I agree with your conclusion, but not necessarily the logic behind it. I see the market in Japan going through a radical culture shift during the coming months. Which probably have not shown in the charts, and may not be apparent for a few more weeks. I think the economic situation will be the real catalyst that other posters are missing. The 360 has both the price and now the library to be far more dynamic this year then last year. I think the console will have greater penetration due to increased escapism, and tighter budgets. In which case the harder nature to the console will probably have greater appeal.

I cannot explain it beyond that, but I think it is worth looking beyond last years or even the charts from earlier this year. This isn't the same world we were living in a couple months ago. A lot of people lost a lot of money, and the economic picture is not pretty. To me that talks to gaming with greater depth and longevity which the 360 has, and to a better price point which once again the 360 has. The consumer may be looking for games that they can drown themselves in rather then pick up for a few minutes.

whats wrong with my logic/

Off topic - Japan is the least affected by the economic crisis. The Yen hardly dropped and there has been no panic what so ever from the Japanese people regarding money issues or economical crisis in Japan. They are still spending big on their brands here.

On topic - I dont see Fable 2 or Banjo being system sellers in Japan. They may increase software sales but wont move much hardware. The next big spike for the 360 is Last Remnant bundle in Japan next month. Fable 2 being a WRPG wont move much at all in Japan and its release is 2nd last week of december so i dont see it moving hardware to those numbers you predicted.

When I say I agree with your conclusion, but not necessarily the logic behind it. I am not necessarily arguing that your logic is flawed. I simply mean that I am not going to comment on that logic. Which I did not. Instead I presented the logic by which I reach the same conclusion in much the same way that a certain math problem can be solved in numerous ways. You sight specific game releases. I sight economic pressures and social consequences. There is not very much in the overlap as it were.